Is Gorecki Improving?

This will be a hot topic at the Rapture draft, which is scheduled to be the same night as the Hangover outing. But since Mike likes to manipulate data in his favor (see: selective Handicap Tracker posts)... what is actually going on? Let's separate fact from fiction:

1) "His handicap has dropped rapidly, faster than anyone in league history."
This is true and implies drastic improvement in his game. However, handicaps incorporate all rounds played, not just league rounds (some of you are better than others at reporting). Your index is made up of the best 10 of your last 20 rounds. In Gorecki's case... only TWO of those are league rounds. So he's playing lights out... in Orlando... by himself.

2) "His gross scoring average last season was 4.9 strokes better than his career average."
This is also true. But while the career gross average over time is a good stat... looking at his 5 round sample size from Spring 2017 can be skewed. Especially when, as Faz points out, he missed all the difficult courses!

So how do we cut through the fog above? Let's set some better conditions:

• We'll take only his rounds in league events. Those scores are under more scrutiny and pressure, so they're a better test of overall skill. They also don't contain any mulligans or "forgotten strokes." I hope. Maybe he still slips a few in there.

• Instead of using pure gross average, we'll use actual handicap differential. This is the number that goes into your index, and it basically determines what you would have shot on a course with a rating of 72.0 and a slope of 113. Why the extra step? Well a 102 (+30) at Buffalo Creek from the gold tees is a LOT different than a 102 (+30) from the platinum tees at Southern Hills. But using gross average... you wouldn't be able to see that difference. Converting them to differentials makes it quite obvious the SoHilly round is more impressive (less sad?) than the Buffy Creek round.

• Plotting all points on a graph makes it difficult to visualize. So let's use a rolling average of 10 league event differentials... which is basically one full season rounded up. 

Gorecki's league history, in one chart.

Conclusion:
Has Gorecki improved? Yes! Exactly one stroke (104.6 to 103.6) from his 10th league event all the way back in February of 2013. Four years and a one stroke improvement. His recent drop in handicap is 100% due to non-league rounds... and his recent decline in career gross average is only because his trend was on pace to shatter the top of the chart!

However... his worst differential average (ie: the top of that mountain) was 4 months after he started taking lessons. So the lessons appear to be working and his scores are trending in the right direction. But if Gorecki wants people to believe he isn't "The Worst," he's going to need to start shooting tournament rounds in the 90s this season.