Rapture 2022 Gambling Recap

It’s a very exciting time of year for professional baseball.  The MLB season is FINALLY coming to a close and that means it is LIDOM time.  That stands for the Liga de Beisbol Profesional de la Republica Dominicana for the one or two of you out there that didn’t already know.  Anyway, last Friday I was calling my favorite Caribbean sportsbook manager, Luis, with my picks for opening weekend and I decided to check in to see how they fared with the big upset in the Rapture 2022.  Hopefully, they didn’t take it on the chin too hard.

Luis said that the betting “action” was way down this year.  Something about missing not one, but two Big JW’s in this year’s event.  There was a big wave of money when the Old Man House was announced, but that was the only action of the week that caused any moves.

Overall, the sportsbook did quite well.  I was somewhat surprised as it looked like they had the Orange team winning 11 – 5.  Since there was very little betting on the event and they may not continue to do odds on the event in the future, Luis let me in on some secrets regarding how the odds were set and why the house almost always wins.

1.       All of the matches where one side was a -110 and the other side was +100 were 50/50 matches in the eyes of the sportsbook.  A small favorite is designated to help generate interest, but ultimately they are coin flip matches.  Either side should win about 50% of the time.  So how did the sportsbook pick a favorite for the 10 of the 16 matches that were designated -110/+100?  They flipped a coin.

2.       That left 6 matches that the sportsbook did not consider coin flip matches.   From most lopsided odds to least lopsided odds, those matches were:

a.       Ho / Geoff: +150

             Faz / Reid: -150

b.       Chandler / Geoff: -130

Casey / Gary: +120

c.       Ho: +120

Casey: -130

d.       Dave: -130

Danny: +110

e.       Ho / Darren: +110

Tall Mike / Troy: -120

f.        Darren / Brendan: -120

Gorecki / Danny: +110

              Before the event, I did notice one thing and pointed it out on the blog.  Ho was considered an underdog in every match despite having the lowest handicap in the league.  I didn’t realize one thing going into the Rapture that I later found interesting:  Geoff, Casey and Darren were all favored heavily in a match but also considered heavy underdogs in another match.  I brought this up with Luis.  He wouldn’t give me the exact methodology used, but the sportsbook created a Player Value Index (“PVI”) for each player.  The only times that the odds differed from a 50/50 match is when there was a statistically significant difference in the individual PVI or combined PVI for the teams.  Just about anyone could infer this from looking at the odds, but Luis confirmed that the two lowest PVI’s belonged to Ho and Danny.  5 of the 6 non-coin flip matches had them as underdogs. 

              The matchup of Chandler / Geoff -130 versus Casey / Gary +120, then jumped out at me because it did not involve the lower end of the PVI.  However, it did have Geoff going from a huge underdog in Day 1 to a statistically significant favorite in Day 2.  It also had Casey as a big underdog, whereas Casey was a going to be a huge favorite in Day 3.  Once again, Luis wouldn’t go into too much detail, but he mentioned something about going from a low PVI partner to a high PVI partner and also that an individual player’s PVI will change based on the format being played.  I guess what he was telling me is that they think Geoff is better in the Four Ball format than he is in Chapman and that having Chandler as a partner is much better than being paired with Ho, at least for this year’s Rapture. 

              Maybe this all seems obvious now, but is worth noting that the favorite won all six of these matches.  In events like this, people like to bet on the underdog because they think they are getting better value.  After all, if the handicap system was not flawed, then you would expect each team to have a 50% chance of winning.  If each team in these six matches did in fact have a 50/50 chance of winning, then the odds that the sportsbook would have gotten all six matches correct is roughly 1.56%.

              One thing I have noticed in the team golf events that I’ve played in is the winner and loser is often determined by the bottom half of the draft, not the top.  Everyone now knows that Dave picking Ho over Gorecki was a huge mistake and it is interesting that the very last pick in the draft seemed to have the biggest impact.  I know that captains often spend a lot of time fretting over who they are going to pick first, especially in a snake draft.  I don’t know if enough time is spent trying to determine who should be picks 5 through 7.

 

2022 Rapture Recap

Golf trips — especially destination trips — are always going to have their hiccups. In 2019 we had torrential rain forcing us to change courses the morning of Four-Ball. We went to Orlando in 2020 during COVID, something that could only happen in our great state of Florida. And last year I got one of the tee times wrong... the first sign of impending dementia.

So when Hurricane Ian flooded Sebring, it shouldn't be a surprise we were able to quickly adapt and change the destination. We got lucky with the course and housing availability, but our Club's expertise in weather patterns and our extensive course database told us where to look.

 

The decision was Dunellon/Inverness in a repeat of 2017's Rapture, with Skyview subbing in for Black Diamond. That competition ended in our only tie, as Katie prevailed beating Gary with a double bogey on the first playoff hole. It was awful to watch, but quite memorable.

The story line this year was "Skill vs. Strokes." Never in the history of the Rapture have the teams been so lopsided in average and median Handicap Index. For years, Darren has been dying on the "strokes mean everything" hill. I'm personally not so sure about that, because we use 80% allowance (60%/40% in Chapman) which benefits skill. But if we were going to squash this debate, this was the year to do it.

The oddsmakers heavily favored Dave's Orange Crush team. As did the Juliette Falls bartenders and staff. They loved Team Orange, and found Team Green to be creepy and most likely to live in a beat-up white van without any back windows.

 

Definitely the team with diverse 401(k)s.

But an argument could be made that Orange's "skill" wasn't real. Maybe it was all vanity numbers. Half of them lowered their Index in the final revision. And with a major storm bearing down on Florida... you need sandbags!

 

Looks like Green's van picked up their first child!

Day 1 - Chapman

Candler Hills was a lot of fun. We were treated to a very solid lunch in the clubhouse, and the staff enjoyed our attendance. Despite being over-priced, it was perfect for modified alt-shot. No water hazards on the course, and very fast greens without flat areas. Even with a simple layout, it's disappointing how much better it is than courses in Tampa.

The matches were mostly predictable. Faz/Reid are a great Chapman team, especially receiving strokes. Melberg/Chandler had a slow start but ultimately got their shit together to run away with the back nine.

• I have to note that the Gypsy Voodoo Doll made an appearance, and Casey/Moostie immediately lost three of the next four holes. Seems the sage has worn off.

Gorecki/Danny put up a good fight, but ran out of strokes on the last five holes to complete the upset. Speaking of upsets... huge win for Gary/Troy over Dave/Travis. Something I didn't expect, and at the time felt like it could be an important point for Green.

Day 2 - Four-Ball

Juliette Falls is a great course, and refreshing to see run in a top-notch manner. It's affordable, great conditions, cart service on both nines, with a fun bar and restaurant. It's a shame it's so far from Tampa. I can see our Members requesting a return Rapture based on this course alone.

Anyway, Troy/Moostie waxed Ho/Darren — which I think everyone predicted. Danny sat in the cart for most of his match, which explains why he and Faz only won a single hole against Melberg/Brendan.

 

Reid/Gorecki were 3-down early and scrapped their way back to All Square... until some controversy about Gorecki missing a non-conceded one-footer. Arguments over gimmies in team match play warm my soul. And yes, Gorecki only missed the putt because they didn't give it to him.

Casey/Gary was pretty much just Casey — as Gary contributed on two holes, while Casey shot a 39 (gross) on the front. HOWEVER... Chandler (#1 pick overall and #1 in all our hearts) was only +4 (gross) through 16 holes. That allowed Geoff to masterfully make bogey (net par) on 17 to seal the victory.

At this point Orange was up 5 - 3. They were confident, but Rapture veterans know a two point lead going into Singles isn't much. In the 8 previous years, a team has earned 3+ net points in the final session four times. In other words, Singles tends to be a blow-out 50% of the time. But could Captain Troy's team smoke and stroke their way to glory? Proving Dave's team was filled with Beyond Meat and Impossible Handicaps... merely intimating "good" golfers?

Yes.

Day 3 - Singles 

Orange only needed 3.5 points to win (3 to tie). Green needed 5 points to force a playoff.

Early on (4-ish holes in), Green was leading 6-2. Only the first four matches were close: Geoff/Troy, Brendan/Gorecki, Chandler/Faz, Darren/Moostie. Three of those matches contained golfers of similar skill, and Gorecki was getting an embarrassing amount of strokes — so it made sense.

A few holes later, the other matches were completely lopsided:

• Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 8) - Danny just wanted to be at the Juliette Falls bar.
• Travis led Gary 4 Up (thru 7) - To be expected. Gary's game is in a slump and he drank beer out of a shoe the day before.
• Reid led Melberg 4 Up (thru 8) - Somewhat shocking. Not that Reid couldn't win... but a blow-out of the 2nd best golfer in the Club?!
• Casey led Ho 5 Up (thru 8) - Wait... the best golfer in our Club is also getting spanked?!

At this point I was commenting to Faz how bullshit the whole situation was. A lot of the historical chokers (Geoff, Brendan, Gorecki, Chandler, Faz, Darren) went off early so we didn't have to decide the competition. And yet it seemed we'd soon be the only matches still on the course!

With Dave and Travis looking like winners, Orange needed one more point from those first four matches to force a playoff. Allowing the Captains to win the Moses on their own! 

 

Let's fast-forward through the 12th hole...

• Troy led Geoff 4 Up (thru 12) - Geoff turned into a putter on the hood of Troy's car. He gone.
• Gorecki led Brendan 4 Up (thru 12) - Chandler gave Brendan some pamphlets explaining how to cope with losing to Gorecki in Rapture Singles. I'd say it gets better... but it doesn't.
• Casey led Ho 6 Up (thru 12) - I bet you think this post is about you, don't you?
  
• Reid led Melberg 1 Up (thru 12) - Hang on! Orange has a new path to the Winner's Circle!
  
• Travis led Gary 3 Up (thru 12) - This is elder abuse. Just end it already.
  
• Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 12) - Dave prolonging the match until the aliens arrive.
  
• Chandler/Faz & Darren/Moosite All Square (thru 12) - "God dammit! All eyes are going to be on our foursome down the stretch." -Chandler, multiple times
   

Every close match has a few crazy moments that define the outcome. Here's what I witnessed:

• Chandler took down Faz by making pars on 14 through 17. Faz had a tough break (tee shot unexpectedly going OB on 15)... but when the Par Train is rolling, it's wise to get off the tracks.
• Moostie made a natural 7 on the par-3 14th... to win the hole... and go 2 Up. Darren was mentally defeated at that point. Never mind that Darren chipped in for birdie on the next hole, only to be covered up by Moostie with a long putt for birdie. This is the Tall Mike we all love, and hate to play against.

Orange should have the three points needed to force a playoff. But some new shit had come to light behind my group:

• Melberg won 16 to go 1 Up, possibly giving Orange the Moses, as Reid didn't stroke on 17.
  
• Gary won four holes in a row to go 1 Up through 16 on Travis. There are no strokes left in this match. I'm told it was such an "out-of-this-world collapse," the aliens Dave summoned turned their ship around. They'd given up on saving humanity (again) due to Travis' mind-boggling course management. If humans can't hold a 4 Up lead on half-blind Gary, they are a doomed species. We're talking Topor levels of bad decisions. Not being able to give each other tips/advice was a huge detriment.

We watched as Travis and Gary traded pars on 17. Then Gary put his 2nd shot into the greenside lake on 18. Only for Travis to duff his approach, chunk a chip, and two-putt to match double bogeys. Green gets another point.

Reid and Melberg both had good looks at the 17th green. But Melberg pulls his approach short-left. He then makes a terrible chip that barely gets on the green. Leaves a putt short above the most tricked-up pin placement of the day. And ultimately records a double-bogey 6.

Meanwhile Reid goes long in two. Stubs a chip. Putts it a few feet short. Argues for a gimmie (allegedly he thought he was stroking). And finally sinks the putt for 5 to square the match. 

 

On to the final hole with the entire Rapture watching, and Reid getting a stroke. Melberg looked to be in a good spot off the tee, but again pulled his approach left. Reid's ball was long through the fairway and on a side-hill lie. But he finds the center of the green with a beautiful 2nd shot. It was all he needed to win his team the Moses outright.

Well deserved champions.

Did we settle the debate of strokes vs. skill? I don't think so. A two point victory was a nice change from recent blow-outs. Perhaps the handicap system just works. And it's most important to be in good form. And sometimes golf is random enough that the greatest golfer in Club history goes Ho-and-three.

A man who picks winners (and Danny).

It remains to be seen how this Rapture will affect future drafts. But the weekend was a blast. I hope you all enjoyed the laughs, debates, and competition. Good luck on your qualification to the 2023 event!

2022 Rapture Participants

Rapture 2022 - Final Prep

A few odds and ends before competition kicks off tomorrow:

• Everyone should be car pooling. Green House was the only one that said anything, but only 3 cars allowed at that property. If you people have more than three cars, we can probably put one at the Mixed House.
• I'll send a big 16-person Rapture text tonight with ALL the addresses. We can't go to the houses until after our first round, which will end after 5:30pm... and it's about a 25 minute drive back to town. I reckon we'll quickly clean up and head out for food. But each team should coordinate with each other.
• Rules Reminders:
• You can't help your "teammate" read greens in Singles (Sunday). Everyone is on their own. Mistakes happen, but please don't do it on purpose.
• If an opponent concedes your next stroke, you must pick up and move out of the way. Continuing to play — especially if it delays the match or helps your partner — is a violation of USGA Rule 23.6.
• Don't interfere with other Matches. It's great fun to watch the final parings come in, but be respectful. Let us choke on our own. We don't need your help. And remember, this is a highly prestigious event!

I think we are all set in GolfGameBook. But the physical scorecard is the Bible for hole-by-hole handicaps. Make sure to use the physical scorecard as the official record, and force the app to match if you need to.

 

Picture day is tomorrow so wear your best team colors. 

Oh, a bunch of you still owe me $81. Send that over.

Rapture 2022 - Housing

Everyone owes me $81.00 for housing ($131 - $50 deposit already paid). If you recall, you actually paid me a $100 deposit, but the other half of that was for our Rapture "pay-for-performance" payouts:

Entry Fee - $50
Each Point Earned - $20
Winning the Rapture - $60

 

We have three houses: Green House, Orange House, and Mixed House. While I entertained a few "suggestions" on how to fill the Mixed House, I ultimately settled on our Club's four oldest souls: Chandler, Darren, Gary, Gorecki (three of us are in the same car, and Gorecki falls asleep at 8pm).

 

The Mixed House is close-ish to the Green House (10 min walk / 2 min drive).

The Orange House is a 5-ish min drive away from the Green House.

Actual address will be texted to the members of each house on Thursday or Friday.

Rapture 2022 - Official Handicaps

I'm working on getting GolfGameBook to update the hole-by-hole handicaps on a couple of courses. Keep in mind if you're running the app, the actual scores in the Rapture do not matter. Use the hole-by-hole handicaps on the physical scorecard, and just make sure the correct team wins each hole.

Handicaps in parenthesis:

Day 1 - Chapman

Ho / Geoff vs. Faz / Reid (2)

Dave / Travis vs. Troy / Gary (7)

Darren / Brendan vs. Gorecki / Danny (9)

Melberg / Chandler vs. Casey / Tall Mike (7)

Day 2 - Four-Ball

Dave / Travis (8) vs. Reid (7) / Gorecki (21)

Melberg / Brendan (11) vs. Faz (5) / Danny (19)

Chandler / Geoff (10) vs. Casey (4) /Gary (7)

Ho / Darren (11) vs. Tall Mike (11) / Troy (11)

 

Day 3 - Singles

Geoff (3) vs. Troy

Brendan vs. Gorecki (9)

Chandler vs. Faz (1)

Darren (1) vs. Tall Mike

Dave vs. Danny (17)

Travis vs. Gary (2)

Melberg vs. Reid (6)

Ho vs. Casey (7)

2022 - Rapture Venue Change

We're bailing on Sebring and headed up to the Lecanto / Dunnellon area. It's mostly the same trip we did in 2017. I had to scramble and secure us three (3) AirBNBs... which are non-refundable. You'll be paying me for the lodging - minus the deposit you've already sent me.

The area got maybe two inches of rain during the storm. It's dry and in great shape. But booking this last minute was not ideal for tee times etc. Please note the schedule changes for next week:

• We're only staying two (2) nights: Friday, October 7th and Saturday, October 8th. If you took PTO on Thursday, you no longer need to do that.

• Friday, October 7th - Chapman at Candler Hills - 1pm start
• This was the only time any course could give us on Friday. Because of the late start, there's no need for a Thursday night stay. Be sure to give yourself enough time to get up there and warm up.
• Saturday, October 8th - Four Ball at Juliette Falls - 9:12am start
• Course is in great shape and is quite challenging. Thus, we can't shouldn't do Chapman here, and instead will play Four Ball (as we did in 2017).
• Sunday, October 9th - Singles at Skyview - 10:45am start
• This is the earliest they could get us out. It's near the AirBNBs and very close to the Veterans/SunCoast expressway.
  

We have three solid courses... three houses each with a pool... the weekend should cost about $70ish less due to us removing a night... the weather will be perfect... and we're closer to Tampa.

Rooming assignments will be sent out later this week, and look for some Venmo / PayPal requests once I get the final totals. I still need to coordinate with two different rental companies, as obtaining the keys might be an issue if they don't let me get them before our Friday round.

Official Rapture handicaps will be posted during the week. 

Thanks for your patience.