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| He tried to warn us back in 1996. |
Now that Katie got a bone thrown to her with the board (myself included) voting her right back in after playing in only one tournament last season, she's pretty pumped up about her chances of winning this summer (see: her comment on one of the recent posts). I quickly scoffed at her bravado because not only does she not show up to events, but when she does, she kind of sucks. She has only one top 3 finish in her last 15 events to go with 9 finishes outside the top 10. Maybe the beating Casey's team put on her in the Rapture of '18 has destroyed her game as she hasn't finished better than 9th place in any tournament since then. Either way, it doesn't seem likely that she'll come storming back to win anything of note this season.
I got to thinking about how that shouldn't just be a comment to be thrown away into the wind, but that my "hot take" that Katie has sucked for two years also shouldn't be a standalone post. Therefore, I decided that the best thing to do was handicap the entire league. No, I'm not going to call Tanya and get the number of a couple good batsmen, but I am going to post some odds for club members to win the season championship. These are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bother asking if I'll take any bets on here, because I won't. I'm about as bad at gambling as I am at golf. You know what, though, if you want to bet on me to win, I'll take all those bets.
Here. We. Go.
The New Guy: Melberg (Even)
New people either have a great advantage or they suck for a while. Melberg's handicap doesn't seem inflated like Katie's was, but I'm not believing he isn't sandbagging until he proves it. I bet he has two good pitchers this season and wins going away.
The artist formerly known as Big John (2:1)
Since he learned to play without the spare tire, he's been on fire. He finished second to Moostie last summer after singlehandledly blowing up the pitcher curve that spring. He followed that up with a hard fought season title this spring despite missing two tournaments. And somehow his handicap now is the same as it was to start the year. How is that even possible? There is some question as to where his focus is, however, having casually mentioned renouncing the BGR during his championship celebration. Maybe he can't deal with the hype?
The Sober Duo: Adam and Troy (3:1)
These two have been sneaking in a win or two a season based on opponent's hangovers alone. One of them keeps up with or paces the big hitters in the league when he's on and the other will scramble a course to death, but both have been showing up and playing well. Both have cut their handicaps by about a stroke this year, but Adam can still go low on tough courses and Troy will be in play on the short ones.
Brown Gypsy Magic: Chandler and Gary (5:1)
They both play in pretty much every tournament, and one stays off the losing streaks with a solid, blind-draw while the other wields the power of the dark arts to keep his ball in play. Gary hasn't finished outside of the top 6 in season standings since 2016 and is at his peak handicap in the last 365 days. Chandler won last spring and he's probably just a couple "scores" from getting his handicap back to sandbagging win range. Stock up on red balls if you're playing against either of them to guard against this Brown Magic. You know there's no way this could only come from his mom's side.
The Relatively Good Golfers: Faz and Dave (8:1)
These guys often look like Tiger and Jack compared to some of the foursomes they end up in (Dave more than Faz), but that's why we net this thing. Faz is making sure to tell Chandler about rounds of golf he's allegedly playing and his handicap has spiked in recent weeks. Crazy how it's coinciding with the possible start of a new season. Dave isn't as limber as he used to be, but maybe this time off and his discovery of low calorie malt beverages might have him in shape for a run at a championship that has eluded him for the better part of a decade.
The Old Dads: Geoff (25:1), Casey (12:1), and Reid (20:1)
They all have different odds, but they each had two top 2 finishes last season and they're all 40+ and all have young kids. When you get on a theme kick, this type of stuff happens. The advanced age dads are still able to show up to most of the events, with two of them boasting perfect attendance in the spring. None of the three have missed more than three tournaments in the previous two seasons combined, and all three were within a punchers chance of winning late last season. Geoff has an ancient title that maybe shouldn't count to go with his super high handicap right now, while Casey boasts a fresher title won when the club had more than 8 people showing up for most events. Reid has been kept out of the champions dinner, but not because of any nationalistic tendencies from the league. After all, we've had one foreigner win three times before. Gorecki will have a different category.
The Younger Dad's Group: Moostie (30:1), Brendan (30:1), Buchert (30:1), and Dub (50:1)
This is definitely not Gorecki's category, either. These guy's manage to make golf league as much of a priority as they can, but young children at home make it tough. If these guys could show up for all the events, maybe they'd have a better shot, but they averaged 6 between them last season and it probably isn't going to go higher this summer. The last time any of them showed up to more than 7 events, one of them won the league title. That's a deceptive stat because only one of them has won anything of note in the league with Moostie winning thrice. Buchert put up a valiant effort once, but you really have to show up to more than 4 events to win the season title. I'm sure Brendan's daughter is great, but his first born, the papoose, is feeling awfully neglected these days. As for me? Why are my odds so high despite only winning twice in 6 years? Because I'm due, dammit.
The Reverse Sandbagger: Hauch (I'm now pronouncing it "How" because "How is his handicap that low?") (50:1)
Until he takes the advice from most of the league and starts reporting high scores during the offseason, he's not going to really compete for a title. Maybe there's a good golfer hidden somewhere in there, but he doesn't show up for most events.
Flirty Thirties: Danny (75:1) and Gorecki (100:1)
These guys bump up against that 30 stroke handicap sometimes, so they'll pull off a win here or there because of strokes alone. Beyond that, we don't see much hope in either of them winning a season title any time soon. Attendance is too spotty and the league would revolt if Gorecki started winning enough to go to the champions dinner. I, for one, would love to see Gorecki at Bern's for the champions dinner. I would then start a non-champions dinner at Red Dog that I'm sure would take a bite out of the dessert room crowd at the very least. I wrote all this before Danny started shooting in the mid-90's. I also see he's not reporting any scores this offseason. I'm gonna need to see some rounds posted soon, especially after he made a comment to Casey about just not reporting good scores on Saturday.
Allegedly Going to Show Up: Katie (100:1)
I'm glad she's excited about coming back and talking shit about winning. I won't believe it til I see it, though.
Not Pictured: Darren
He's shown up to enough events to miss the whole spring season and remain eligible. The Rona delay might allow him back for the start of the season, but he's old and frail so I don't think he'll be able to play the whole time. Plus, all the smoking makes him more susceptible to this virus than most of the rest of the league, so an optimistic prediction is that he won't be on a ventilator between now and his next round of golf.
Looking forward to a possible season starting up in May. Avoid the clap.

Vegas Dub — not to be confused with the dwarf that carries women's purses and married a washed-up Holly Sonders, only to get dumped during quarantine — has some good analysis. I'll add to the #content by giving some of my thoughts on these potential plays:
ReplyDeleteMelberg (even) - Our newest member is another long hitter, which obviously offends my sensibilities. However, he did just take 39 putts at Southern Dunes, which I can get behind (he still shot 77). My point is... he doesn't have the vast room for improvement that Katie did with her initial 30+ handicap. He's already really good at golf, despite that shaky putter. I'm just glad an American finally reclaimed the title of our Club's "best" golfer.
Big John (2:1) - The ebbs and flows of handicaps pretty much only give you a two-season window. Looking at our Club's Modern Era — we've only had one back-to-back winner (Moostie). And never has anyone finished in the top 3 for three straight seasons (aka: the ol' tree tree). Let's plot out some of the recent "good" final standings stretches, and what happened the next season:
Chandler finshed 1, 2, 10.
Moostie 1, 1, 13.
John 3, 2, 14.
Katie 1, 2, 7.
Gary 2, 2, 5, 3, 2 (best stretch ever... without a Cup).
Gorecki 2, 2, 6.
John 2, 1, ?.
Count on John to finish down the leader board this season. Also, he has a "girlfriend" now. Any change in relationship status hurts the golf game.
Reid (20:1) - This is a pretty good value. His handicap is on the rise. The shanks are gone. He'll probably tie for first in 6 events and win the season.
Darren (no line) - Gonna suck when his wrist is healed only to get grounded again the first time he goes out.
Monte Carlo Dave (8:1) - Stay away from this pick. His back is shot... the Eastern medication treatments aren't working... and there isn't going to be any Bern to feel this year.
Best #content I've seen in a long, long time. Thanks Dub.
ReplyDeleteSo Dub - $1 bet? and you owe me $100 if i win?
ReplyDeletePlease see the note in the post where I won’t be taking any bets unless you’d like to bet on me to win. I can control the outcome on that one. Feel free to get someone else to bet you, though. And thanks for reading.
ReplyDeleteI don’t feel old but I accept the review. Today the Streamsong caddy told me Dustin Johnson out drove me on a par 5 so maybe I am old. Crum consistently outdrove me too. It’s all down hill from here I assume.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to watching you transition to hitting 14 drivers per round... not because of your terrible course management... but because you finally hit it as short as I do.
ReplyDeleteStreamsong was not fun today in a 3 club wind.
ReplyDelete