End of Season Commentary - The Bad

Sorry for the delay but part 2 of 3 is here. This is the middle of the pack in terms of this season's final standings. Stay tuned for part 3, The Ugly.

Chris

A great addition to the league (you’re welcome) in both golf skill and in just being an overall good guy. See what happens when we don’t invite strangers from the bar Mike? A very solid inaugural season in terms of gross scoring with the lowest scoring average (+10.75), identical front and back 9 averages (also known as the anti-JW), rounds of +3 and +4 with the +3 coming at Esplanade for his highest finish of the season (2^nd). He had the best percentage for making par or better (56.944%), the lowest for bogey (27.083%) which of course is good when you’re a low handicapper and terrible if you’re a high handicapper, and third best in terms of making double or worse (15.972%). Lastly for gross scoring stats, had the best par 3 average (3.405), second best for par 4s (4.667), and third best for 5s (5.655). Now for the bad. He finished 9^th in the standings, which was more than 1,200 points behind Mike even though he only missed one event. 10^th best in terms of points/event (77.5) and 12^th best in terms of net scoring average (4.875). Besides his 2^nd place finish at the final, he only had one other top 5 finish (5^th in the season opener) and had to buy a pitcher twice. There’s just not much room for error when you’re a low handicapper. It’s tough to start the “bad” commentary with someone who is clearly good at golf but the line had to be drawn somewhere!

 

Ho

A pretty decent season in terms of gross scoring with the 5^th best average (+16), 6^th best average for making par or better (40.972%), and leading the league in par 5 scoring with an average of 5.483. Excellent attendance for the season with missing only one event, in fact he’s only missed five events in his six seasons as a member. Finished in the middle of the pack for the overall standings, earned 75.938 points per event played with an average net score of +4.75. I think he needs to dial in those fancy pants irons of his because he only made seven pars and one birdie on par 3s (out of 36 attempts), leading to the 13^th best scoring average of 4.056. Also, he made 35 doubles or worse out of 144 holes played (12 of which were triple or worse). No wonder he has so many stories to (Ho)tell!

 

Darren

First of all, it was great having Darren back this season after he had to miss the previous one with a rather embarrassing self-inflicted wrist injury. But I fear the days of The Baron may be gone forever as it seemed like he went out of his way to dispel the age old saying of “beware the injured golfer.” Even with a win (four way tie) he only earned 580 points on the season. This was mostly caused by a slow start, averaging 23.5 points/event during the first five, one of which he owed a double pitcher! Not only was it his first time buying a double pitcher, he’s only had to buy seven in his entire career! For reference, John bought nine pitchers in the Spring ’19 season alone. A very middle of the road season in terms of stats with nothing really too horrible or too great to highlight. I hope he returns to form and helps continue to #keepthechampsdinnersmall.

 

Faz

Always fun to write these things about yourself but here goes nothing. It’s looking more and more likely that not only will I never win a fourth cup (or what would be three in the modern era) but I don’t think I’ll ever win a single event again. I have played 36 events since my last win, which was in the Summer ’18 season, and is also the last season I won the cup. Even though my gross scoring stats (4^th) are always relatively good compared to the rest of the league I can just never seem to play well enough in relation to my handicap when it comes to league events. Since the Summer ’18 season I’ve ranked 13^th, 7^th, T8th, and 12^th for net scoring. Please note, this is in no way me complaining about how hard it is to win with a lower handicap, I’m simply just not playing good golf when it matters. Maybe instead of calling people a “has been” they’ll now be known as a “Faz been.” I’ll see myself out…

 

Brendan

Is there a better person to have in your foursome? Who else can so easily just slap a papoose on the front of a cart in front of course employees and they don’t bat an eye? Who else can get blanked on points in more than half of their events played this season,  rank 18^th for net scoring, 16^th for gross scoring, make par or better 22.222% of the time and make double or worse 41.358% of the time and still be such a pleasure to be around? That being said, it was a feast or famine season for BD. Of the four events he placed in the points, three were top five finishes, including a tie for second in the first event. He also tied his career low gross score with a round of +13 at The Groves. His other +13 round came at Stoneybrook (R.I.P.) where his net score was -16 and may have been the catalyst for the creation of the “good pitcher” rule. Lastly, does anyone have a better hat collection than this man?

 

Adam

Such a conundrum this fella. Solid swing? Check. Great gear? Check. Plays a lot and even practices sometimes? Check. Has a realistic handicap for his skill level? Check. All of these boxes checked and yet last season (Spring) was the only one where he threatened a cup. Something isn’t adding up. I’m convinced that he’ll eventually put enough solid league rounds together to win a cup at some point but this season was definitely not the one. He earned 410.5 points with a win (four way tie) and two top-5 finishes. His round of +9 at The Groves was a new career best in terms of gross scoring but he also had to buy two pitchers. If there’s one area I’d say he should focus on it’s par 3 scoring, where he ranked 12^th this season with an average of 4.054. Club up good sir, club up!

Is Stroking It at the Rapture the Key to Ascension?

In my infinite-part series of combating bad analysis based on a singular observation, we turn our attention to the Rapture. Darren has been convinced since the 2019 North Port Massacre that "teams with higher handicaps have an unfair advantage!" Sound familiar?

The entire premise is a bit ridiculous because so many factors go into how someone plays, regardless of their stroke situation. People get hungover, pulled over, bladder issues, relationship strife, swing changes, back pain, thigh rashes... it's a total crap-shoot. Not to mention the number of strokes received depends on your opponent(s). But if there is a bias, we have enough stats to figure it out.

I originally wanted to get the overall winning percentage of pairings/singles that received strokes. I could then break it down into the three formats (Four Ball, Chapman, Singles). I also wanted to see if a bias existed based on the number of strokes received (in total and per format).

Chapman and Singles formats are easy, since (usually) one team gets strokes and the other gets none. Four Ball is a little different as the low-player(s) play to scratch. So for that format, I used the total strokes for each pairing and adjusted the low-team down to zero.

Seven matches in Rapture history have been "straight-up," and all were thrown out as the results are irrelevant to this exercise. Only one of those seven was in Four Ball — a hilarious (on paper) 2018 contest where each side had a total of 22 strokes: Gary (3) & Gorecki (19) vs. Dave (0) & Danny (22). Four of the five "experts" who made picks went with Dave/Danny, so that tells you the overall Club sentiment. They won in a blow-out 6&4.

Of the remaining matches (77) that had strokes, the pairing that received strokes had a slight losing record: 34-36-7 (0.487). I drilled that down to tiers of strokes-received: 1-4 (40% of all matches), 5-8 (30%), 9+ (30%).

Right off the bat, it's safe to say there's no obvious advantage in the Rapture as a three day event. Even in the extreme case of a pairing receiving 15+ strokes, their record is only 5-3. Two of those involved a Four Ball team of Dave & Darren giving 16 and 17 strokes (they won one, lost one), so I can see where Darren formed his hypothesis after losing on the final hole to Adam & Geoff last year.

But what about a format-related bias? Is the creation of "Super Stroker" pairings (which I'm fond of) the way to go in Four Ball and/or Chapman?

The first thing of note is the sample size of "format-specific data by strokes received" is pretty small. But here are a few conjectures:

Four Ball - This seems to be a format where higher handicappers can shine. Match Play not only ignores their blow-ups, but they can also be saved on those holes by their partners. Of the 6 active Members with winning Four Ball records, four of them have indexes above the Club median: Danny, Brendan, Geoff, Darren.

Chapman - There's a mixed bag here because of the 60/40 allowance. You need two high handicaps together to get any meaningful strokes. JW and Gorecki have been paired together 3 times, only winning once. Overall, it feels like bad players can really hurt good players in this format.

Singles - This is the most important format, as it accounts for 50% of the total points each year. Only JW and Geoff have winning Rapture Singles records and have historic indexes higher than 16.

All of this should result in a fairly even 3-day exhibition. Bad golfers can contribute in Four Ball... potentially drag their team down in Chapman... and definitely aren't getting an advantage in Singles. Without an obvious overall bias, there's only one conclusion we can make about the 2019 Rapture: Chandler is the greatest Captain of all time.

Rapture - Primer #1

You should all know the pairings by now, but for the lazy ones, head to the Rapture page on this blog to see the match-ups in the results link.

As always, everyone will be on the same tees for this event.

The FBGC Course Setup Committee (FBGCCSC) wants to remind you that this is an exhibition, and the goal is to maximize the number of holes won with net eagles and birdies. Whether you know it or not... all decisions are made for your enjoyment. Silence is acceptance. Fight it if you like it.

All that being said... I think these courses are going to play "long" and difficult. Buckle up, buckaroos.

The Courses

Day 1 (Friday, Sept 25th) - Four Ball - Celebration Golf Club

$52+ tax - 10:06am start

It's tight, a little tricked up, but can produce some low rounds. Lots of water and woods are in play. Some forced carry, forced lay-ups, and narrow chutes to contend with.

Handicaps are 80% allowance.

Day 2 (Saturday, Sept 26th) - Chapman - Hawk's Landing

$65+ tax - 9:33am start

Everyone tees off. Everyone hits their partner's ball. Select the best ball from there and play alternate shot. I said from the beginning this format was too difficult for you people. Every year someone proves me correct.

I've never been to Hawk's Landing. The course has been closed all summer, and scheduled to re-open right before we arrive. The final hole has been changed from a par 5 to an island par 3. The FSGA probably won't have it re-rated, so I'm going to have to figure something out based on their supplemental yardage grids. All of your apps and probably the lead board (GolfGameBook) will be incorrect.

It looks pretty open off the tee. And should be in perfect shape.

Handicaps are 60% / 40% allowance for the lowest / highest handicaps on each team.

Day 3 (Sunday, Sept 27th) - Singles - Shingle Creek

$59+ tax - 9:06am start

Since I played it in 2015, four holes and all the greens have been completely redesigned. I remember it being difficult. Greens were large with multiple tiers. It's has a good mix of short and long holes.

Handicaps are 80% allowance.

The Houses

We're staying in the Windsor Palms gated community in Kissimmee. Each team will have a house with a pool. They're only a few hundred feet apart, but considering this whole COVID thing is still going on... we probably shouldn't all congregate at the same time.

You've paid for 3 nights. Check-in on Thursday is after 4pm. Everyone should carpool. I'll email/text specific instructions when I get them. I also might reserve us a round at Disney's mini-golf course on Friday night.

Payments

You've already paid for housing and gambling. You only owe for the golf each day. Each full point you earn for your team will get you $20. Winning the Rapture will get you a bonus of $60.

Historical Win Percentage

#ContentSeason continues, as we look at more stats in to drive engagement. Not John's pending engagement... just people debating things.

Below is a list of everyone's current Index, and career winning percentage. Granted, not everyone won with these current indexes. They bounce around. But we all know who the "skillful" players are. Comment with your observations:

I'll start:

• Katie won 7 times in her first 21 events. She has zero wins in her next 21 events. Her early dominance was due to quick improvement under the old, and less penal, handicap system (mostly short game). Those days seem over.
• Darren is the ultimate sandbagger. I propose we change his nickname from "Baron" to "Mr. Sandman."
• Chandler's handicap yo-yos from 8 to 12. Wins are in spurts, and then it's hibernation time. Recently, his seven most recent rounds aren't being used by the Index calculation...
  
• Gorecki earned 33% of his TOTAL victories this past season. Definitely due to mental improvement and wide fairways.
• Casey, Troy, and Danny are only one victory away from getting their win % to double-digits.
• Buchert doesn't play enough to win a Cup — but his win % is surprising. I see why he's pushing for low-handicap relief policies.
  
• Ho is either a reverse-sandbagger, or gets really nervous around us. Or both.
  
• Brendan and JW win too much. We should decrease the handicap allowance! </sarcasm>
  
• Melberg has only played in 8 events, so I left him off this list. 
• Overall, this looks like a good spread of "skill." The three "best" golfers on the list (Dave, Chandler, Faz) are all in the top half.

A Good Round Spoiled

There was some comments about Melberg's impressive 75 (gross) on Sunday, and him finishing 2nd place. It's easy to believe that low handicaps can't win on TOUR, but is that really the case?

Maybe.

Dan, Buffalo Ben, and Greg didn't play regularly enough during their short Club membership, so I'm not sure we can look to their records.

In the seasons where Dave played in at least 6 events, he finished: 5th, 10th, 9th, 4th, 12th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 8th. That's 50% in the top 5 final standings, and three (3) of those he missed winning the season by less than 500 points.

In Club history, we've had 21 rounds recorded of +4 (gross) or better. Of those, 12 (57%) won the event. Four of them finished 2nd, and five of them were 3rd or worse:

What sticks out to me is the list of courses where this has happened. Westchase is difficult, and Dave barely lost to a couple of great rounds by Adam and Moostie. Dave's runner-up at Hernando Oaks (which can be difficult) was to Darren who shot 82 (gross). Nobody is ever going to beat that.

Melberg finishing 8th at The Groves is insane (Dave won that round at +1 gross).

The ChampionsGate CC tournament is infamous for many reasons. We haven't played that course since, and we probably should. It'll just get Tall Mike one step closer to his 5th Cup.

End of Season Commentary – The Good

This post is part one of three in a story called The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Part one focuses on the players that finished in the top eight this season. Scroll down to the previous post to see the stats I post every season.

 

Mike

Became the first four time league champ by tying for the most wins (3), earning the most points per event (202.278), and by having the lowest net scoring average (+1). While his season winning performance seemed like it came out of nowhere, he won in week two and that put him in the number one spot in the standings. From that point on, he was never worse than third due to playing in every event and only being blanked in the points once. His percentage of making par or better compared to last season improved from 33.333% to 41.975%. His focus (like pretty much all of us) should be on reducing the frequency of making double or worse. He made bogey at the same rate as he made double or worse, 29.012% of the time. Congrats on cup number four Mike!

 

Gorecki

Without taking the time to go back and look, this has to be the closest he has ever come to winning the coveted cup. Three of his ten career wins came this season, which improved his winning percentage to 10.2%, which is eleventh best of active league members. He played in every event and was only blanked once. He started the season with a win and never dropped below third in the standings, holding the number one spot for six of the nine (noice) weeks. Earlier in the season, his bogey percentage was way higher than last season but his performance over the last three weeks brought the numbers down, but still better. He had the sixth highest bogey percentage (40.123%) this season, which was up from 34.259% last season. If he finds a way to eliminate just a handful of blowups each round, he will definitely win a cup since bogey can be net birdie for him on some holes and is never worse than net par. If I was his mental coach, I’d encourage him to treat every course as a par 90.

 

Casey

Finished third in both overall standings and points per event (169.167). It would have been interesting to see what impact he could have had on the cup if he played in more than six events. Also, if anyone needs $40, Casey is looking to donate his unused entry fees for his three missed events. He improved his gross scoring average by five shots since last season, +22.111 to +17.167, which also resulted in a four stroke improvement for his net scoring average from +8.667 to +4.5. Not surprisingly, his frequency of making double or worse improved from 33.951% to 23.148%. Personally, I’d recommend he keeps his $40 for the campaign he’s clearly starting to run for the board next election.

 

Geoff

Poor guy has been coming up short (literally and figuratively) his entire life. I’m the only one that can make that joke in this cancel culture. He had a win (four way tie), a tie for second, and a solo third in an event where Chandler and Gorecki tied for the win. A solid season overall with some close calls and back nine collapses but he always takes it in little strides. He had a great opportunity to destroy his career low gross round in relation to par at The Groves but alas, was only able to tie it with +17. His other +17 round is from the very first season in the summer of 2012 at Countryway. You know what they say, short courses for short horses. Man, short jokes are great!

 

Dave

I was sick of Dave being the best golfer in the league so I recruited Chris Melberg, an actual guest of a Chris also named Chris that isn’t Chris Guest. With Dave’s handicap he’s forced to go low every week in order to have a chance at winning, which he was able to do once this season. His win at The Groves was his first in fifteen events played and it took his career best gross round of +1 to secure the W. Even with the third best gross scoring average (+11.125) and second best net scoring average (+1.875) he was only able to earn 115.313 points per event, which is Kuchar-esque. In other words, it’s very solid play but impossible to win it all unless you get up in the low 200s per event. His average finish was 6^th place and was one of only tree members to not buy a pitcher this season, Troy and Brian being the other two.

 

Chandler

He finished sixth in the overall standings for the second year in a row. Another victim of playing too much good golf outside of league play. He had the second lowest gross scoring average (+11.111), the best back nine average (+4.778), second best par or better percentage (50.617%), and the lowest frequency of making double or worse (13.580%), which was only 22 out of 162 holes with 16 of those being doubles. He also had the best par 4 scoring average (4.648) and was second best on par 5s (5.606), probably because he’s so long off the tee now. If only all of us could install hitting bays in our guest rooms to practice the one plane swing a la Thicc Boy.

 

JW

He got his first win in fifteen events by posting his lowest career gross score of 84. A round of +12 is impressive for nearly all of us. It’s especially impressive for a course handicap of 20. But, it’s one of the best and worst +12s of all time seeing as how he was even par on the front! All kidding aside, really awesome for him to shoot 36, always fun seeing people post personal bests of any kind. In fairly typical JW style, the season was a bit of a roller coaster. The same guy that won with a round of -8 net also posted rounds of +12, +17, and +22 – the ol’ double pitcher! Not many people analyze their own game and their own stats more than JW so he doesn’t need me to tell him that simply reducing the frequency of doubles or worse (40.741%) by say 10% and turning them into bogies would go a long way in improving his chances of taking home a cup.

 

Reid

A pretty middle of the road season for Reid in almost all categories. He came in second by one shot at the Match Play, had three top five finishes, only had to buy one pitcher, and earned a respectable 82.278 points per event. The most exciting part of his season was nearly winning the cup for Gorecki. Most of his stats are about the same as last season except for a nice drop in net scoring average from +7.125 to +4.111. His frequency of making par or better, bogey, and double or worse are split pretty evenly at 37.037%, 32.716%, and 30.247% respectively. He either needs to bump that handicap up or start turning doubles into bogies and bogies into pars if he’s ever going to hold the champs’ dinner at the Jerk Hut. Fun fact, Reid has played in the second most events in league history (141). We all know the schedule maker has played in the most.

End of Season Stats - Summer 2020

Image is best viewed by clicking on it and then you can zoom on your phone.

Highlighted means the player played in less than five events and therefore their stats should be taken with even more of a grain of salt than the others. And in this particular instance, it also means you should stay at least six feet away from them when outdoors and more like twenty when indoors.

Dear Leader EDIT:

Adding a graph of rounds played, bad pitchers, and bad pitchers per round.

We had a Club record 152 rounds this season.

Original author EDIT:

Adding a graph of average rounds played over the last four seasons. Troy's number is skewed by a zero in the Spring of '19 because I don't believe he lived in FL at the time.

I'll get through this... I'll be OK

Well as I cycle through the 7 stages of grief after yesterday's outcome, its going to sting for awhile (Stage: Shock) given how close I was (Stage: Denial) but ultimately the Tall(er) Mike earned it on "Championship Sunday". His back 9 performance was one for the ages including watching him chip in from 50+ yds out for a birdie on the 15th as I get awarded the greenie but gain no traction as I making my late charge (Stage: Anger). I applaud his performance and how he handled the immense pressure, and no flag stick had to suffer his wrath yesterday. Congrats again Mike. 

I'd like to personally thank those individuals that came up to me after the round, at the bar, texted me, etc and expressed your words of encouragement and/or congratulatory remarks on my season performance. That was a true display of your character and sportsmanship and I thank you for that. Oh and also thanks to those checking on my mental health condition as well to make sure no one had to Baker Act me (Stage: Depression). 

So while its tempting to review my season with a "if only" (Stage: Bargaining), I'm going to learn from this overall experience and send out my apologies now as I won't be giving up on this sport and will be returning for at least another season. (Stage: Testing) 

Placing in the Top 5 in 5 of the 9 events, recording only my second sandie ever in my league history, and owing only 1 pitcher this season, I'd say that's quite an improved performance and I'm definitely up for some more golf this winter season. (Stage: Acceptance). 

Thanks and see ya on the links! 

GorecLOVE out.

FBGC Masters - 2020 Recap

I'm still trying to figure out what I witnessed yesterday. The odds of Tall Mike winning the event, and subsequently the season, were insane. Especially after he opened up the round with three straight doubles, falling to DFL on the leader board.

Gorecki also began his round in horrendous fashion — +17 (gross) through the first seven holes. It was so terrible (despite all his strokes) that those of us watching the leader board figured he couldn't control his own destiny. We were wrong, as Gorecki put the wheels back on enough to make it "close."

Reid was going to be Gorecki's savior, officially sending a new member to the Champions Dinner. But he couldn't quite make enough pars on the back nine to pull away, and then he officially ejected on the somewhat easy (and wide) long-drive 17th hole, when he hit his tee shot into a lake that really wasn't in play.

Still, Moostie was barely keeping it together. He got up-and-down for par from off the green on 10 and 11. On 12 he made a 10-foot downhill breaking putt for par that would have rolled 5+ feet past the cup. On 14 he made a terrible double-bogey after a poor drive. And on 15 he chunked his tee shot, only to hole out from 55 yards for birdie. It wasn't a good round by any means, but he was scoring.

This was the 2nd straight year we set a new record for smallest margin of victory on the season. Gorecki lost the Cup by 103 points, which can be sliced up in a few different ways:

• He needed to shoot 3 strokes better yesterday. That would have given him a tie for 3rd, and an additional 112.5 points. Gorecki easily missed three putts under 5-feet. He topped a few approach shots with mid-irons that cost him. And what I personally believe was a round-killing decision: he went with driver on the 160-yard par 3 12th hole. 
• Gorecki has had a lot of success with this out-of-the-box play... but yesterday wasn't the time for it. He pulled his tee-shot so hard into the bushes we thought it was OB. His provisional was popped up to the same bushes. Ultimately we found his first ball, but due to an unplayable lie he ended up with a triple bogey (another short missed putt). He only needed to put an easy swing on a 6-iron to be short of the green and secure a bogey.
• Gorecki lost to Tall Mike earlier in the season at Match Play. This was in essence a 200 point swing. Had they tied, Gorecki would have lost the season by 3 points! Granted... it was a 6&5 beat-down so I'm only bringing this up to emphasize the importance of Match Play.
• Gorecki tied Chandler (hey, that's me!) in a Major at Lakewood National. ONE stroke better for him, or ONE stroke worse for me, and he would have won the season.
• Tall Mike won the first Major at Southern Hills by a stroke over Casey. Had they just tied, Gorecki would have won the season.
• If Tall Mike shot ONE stroke worse at Cheval, Gorecki would have won the season.

I could go on, but obviously every stroke of every round matters. Which is why I yell at certain people for their generous gimmie tendencies.

Anyway, just as a bunch of us have done to Dave over the years, Tall Mike stole the Cup in epic fashion. Two Majors, back-to-back victories, and his final round 83 (gross) was 3rd best in the field. Congrats to Moostie. He's now our second 4-time Champion... and some would say the greatest of all time (so far).

Tall Mike - Summer 2020 Champion

Passing of the Cup between Champions

A BGR "freedom fighter" approves of the winner.

-----------------------------------------

The Board is going to meet soon to vote on any rule and policy changes. We'll also discuss what to do with the Winter Season, since football is going to be TV only (if it even happens). If you got opinions, I'd suggest making some comments ASAP.

I'll also be switching to Rapture mode, so be on the lookout for many more posts. We did the pairings yesterday, which you all saw, and they look pretty solid.