Odds Update

You know all of those preseason pickers for college football taking Notre Dame or USC to win it all and then never go back to own up to being so bad at picking? That's not going to be me. I'm very bad at picking club events, and even worse at setting odds for league champions. Or maybe Gorecki has my preseason write-up on his makeup bureau at his house so he can apply his anti-aging cream and get ready to win another FBGC event at the same time.

With only a third of the season remaining, one golfer has established a commanding lead over the rest of the field by finishing first in half of the season's events already: Michael J. Gorecki, AKA OMG, AKA the Stroking Skeleton, and so on and so forth. I had Gorecki going out at 100:1 odds to win the championship, and if I were an actual sports betting business, I would probably be broke. Net scoring gives pretty much anyone the chance to win, as evidenced multiple times this season. With four of the seven first place finishes this season owned by golfers who have spent nearly all of their league time in 20+ handicap territory, it's clear that talent isn't what drives wins. Anyway, let's go see how awful I am at handicapping our club now that only 5 players are within a win and a Masters win of possibly beating Gorecki at this point.

The New Guy: Melberg (Even)

This was dumb. Melberg's handicap was way too low to actually compete with Gorecki levels of stroke giving. Still, I had seen previous new members come in and steal a couple events, or even a season championship, based on mis-handicapping, so I guess I was working under the premises that Melberg was a scratch golfer playing at a 6 or something. Another great example of golf talent not mattering.

The artist formerly known as Big John (2:1)

I didn't realize that John would try to defend his title by... not showing up to events. Not only that, he's only broken 90 once this season, which isn't going to work well for this now 15-handicapper. The stroke and a half he's shaved aren't what's killing him. Him not being able to put up better than an 88 is.

The Sober Duo: Adam and Troy (3:1)

The Hangover is usually earlier in the season and I was leaning on one of these two winning against our group of drunken ne'er-do-wells to be higher in the standings. Also, I really expect Troy to crush the Concussion as he apparently designed The Groves and it fits his game perfectly. Still, we are four golfers in starting on the favorites side and we have Adam in last place and no golfer in the top half of the standings and all pretty much eliminated.

Brown Gypsy Magic: Chandler and Gary (5:1)

Finally getting to a golfer who only has to win two tournaments to catch up to Gorecki. When I wrote the original odds post on May 3, Chandler's handicap was trending towards good sandbagging range. Since then he's lowered it three strokes. In-season handicap management isn't what you're after, but reporting multiple single digit scores outside of league play is just silly. Miss a few putts here and there during your practice rounds, Gypsy. Gary is well on pace for his worst league finish in years. Guess the gypsy magic comes more from the Meyers side.

The Relatively Good Golfers: Faz and Dave (8:1)

Talent doesn't matter. These guys have no shot.

The Old Dads: Geoff (25:1), Casey (12:1), and Reid (20:1)

Three of the top seven in the standings here. Would have been good value for bettors as these guys are all past league champions and know how to operate at the top of the standings. Wait, what's that? Reid hasn't won? Oh. I must have skipped the end of Spring 19 and Spring 14 after seeing his commanding lead going into the last few tournaments. That kind of gives me hope for this season, though. Who will be the champions dinner hero to save them from being the earlybird special at the Sizzler? Perhaps Casey, who is the closest competitor and still has a real chance to win. Reid and Geoff probably won't be the heroes because they've been playing with me every week and my situational awareness apparently isn't great because cart girls take too long.

The Younger Dad's Group: Moostie (30:1), Brendan (30:1), Buchert (30:1), and Dub (50:1)

Moostie and I have been holding our own this season, each with a win and me with a second. Moostie has shown up more and done better on his less than stellar weeks while I couldn't even win my match play while struggling to a second to last finish at Waterlefe, though, so Moostie is another past champion with a real motive to keep the champions dinner free of jerky, and the ability to win multiple tournaments coming down the stretch. While Brendan and Moostie are boasting perfect attendance records, Buchert and I have not been. I will say my misses have been for other golf opportunities more than family constraints, though, so this one's on me.

The Reverse Sandbagger: Hauch (I'm now pronouncing it "How" because "How is his handicap that low?") (50:1)

A strong performance at Waterlefe seems like it might have boosted his confidence moving forward, but he followed that up with a pitcher and a pedestrian performance at the Jamaican. Everyone knows you can't walk off the island, and his season has officially drowned while sitting over 1,300 points behind with about 11 other league members.

Flirty Thirties: Danny (75:1) and Gorecki (100:1)

Tough to win anything when you only show up twice, even if you have the Rona antibodies like Danny. And here's where we get to our league's Leicester City. The golfer that would have been relegated to inferior leagues if they actually existed is about to win the whole damn season. I mostly blame Chandler for this. He started this league and now he's going to have to be the one to burn it down for the insurance. Those of us without season titles can rest easy at our new non-champions dinner at Red Dog, though. Still awaiting the league revolt I promised. Maybe Gorecki downloaded that mental golf app that keeps popping up on facebook ads?

Allegedly Going to Show Up: Katie (100:1)

She's been showing up, which is a vast improvement from the Spring. If she shows up for the next 5 events she'll once again qualify for the World Rankings, too.

Not Pictured: Darren

Folks, the Baron, the name applied to Darren's good golf game, is officially dead. He's now just regular Darren again and will need to get that handicap back up around 20 to start winning again. Presuming the cause of death is those cancer sticks. RIP Baron.

His reign ended with a poof.