Rapture 2022 Gambling Recap

It’s a very exciting time of year for professional baseball.  The MLB season is FINALLY coming to a close and that means it is LIDOM time.  That stands for the Liga de Beisbol Profesional de la Republica Dominicana for the one or two of you out there that didn’t already know.  Anyway, last Friday I was calling my favorite Caribbean sportsbook manager, Luis, with my picks for opening weekend and I decided to check in to see how they fared with the big upset in the Rapture 2022.  Hopefully, they didn’t take it on the chin too hard.

Luis said that the betting “action” was way down this year.  Something about missing not one, but two Big JW’s in this year’s event.  There was a big wave of money when the Old Man House was announced, but that was the only action of the week that caused any moves.

Overall, the sportsbook did quite well.  I was somewhat surprised as it looked like they had the Orange team winning 11 – 5.  Since there was very little betting on the event and they may not continue to do odds on the event in the future, Luis let me in on some secrets regarding how the odds were set and why the house almost always wins.

1.       All of the matches where one side was a -110 and the other side was +100 were 50/50 matches in the eyes of the sportsbook.  A small favorite is designated to help generate interest, but ultimately they are coin flip matches.  Either side should win about 50% of the time.  So how did the sportsbook pick a favorite for the 10 of the 16 matches that were designated -110/+100?  They flipped a coin.

2.       That left 6 matches that the sportsbook did not consider coin flip matches.   From most lopsided odds to least lopsided odds, those matches were:

a.       Ho / Geoff: +150

             Faz / Reid: -150

b.       Chandler / Geoff: -130

Casey / Gary: +120

c.       Ho: +120

Casey: -130

d.       Dave: -130

Danny: +110

e.       Ho / Darren: +110

Tall Mike / Troy: -120

f.        Darren / Brendan: -120

Gorecki / Danny: +110

              Before the event, I did notice one thing and pointed it out on the blog.  Ho was considered an underdog in every match despite having the lowest handicap in the league.  I didn’t realize one thing going into the Rapture that I later found interesting:  Geoff, Casey and Darren were all favored heavily in a match but also considered heavy underdogs in another match.  I brought this up with Luis.  He wouldn’t give me the exact methodology used, but the sportsbook created a Player Value Index (“PVI”) for each player.  The only times that the odds differed from a 50/50 match is when there was a statistically significant difference in the individual PVI or combined PVI for the teams.  Just about anyone could infer this from looking at the odds, but Luis confirmed that the two lowest PVI’s belonged to Ho and Danny.  5 of the 6 non-coin flip matches had them as underdogs. 

              The matchup of Chandler / Geoff -130 versus Casey / Gary +120, then jumped out at me because it did not involve the lower end of the PVI.  However, it did have Geoff going from a huge underdog in Day 1 to a statistically significant favorite in Day 2.  It also had Casey as a big underdog, whereas Casey was a going to be a huge favorite in Day 3.  Once again, Luis wouldn’t go into too much detail, but he mentioned something about going from a low PVI partner to a high PVI partner and also that an individual player’s PVI will change based on the format being played.  I guess what he was telling me is that they think Geoff is better in the Four Ball format than he is in Chapman and that having Chandler as a partner is much better than being paired with Ho, at least for this year’s Rapture. 

              Maybe this all seems obvious now, but is worth noting that the favorite won all six of these matches.  In events like this, people like to bet on the underdog because they think they are getting better value.  After all, if the handicap system was not flawed, then you would expect each team to have a 50% chance of winning.  If each team in these six matches did in fact have a 50/50 chance of winning, then the odds that the sportsbook would have gotten all six matches correct is roughly 1.56%.

              One thing I have noticed in the team golf events that I’ve played in is the winner and loser is often determined by the bottom half of the draft, not the top.  Everyone now knows that Dave picking Ho over Gorecki was a huge mistake and it is interesting that the very last pick in the draft seemed to have the biggest impact.  I know that captains often spend a lot of time fretting over who they are going to pick first, especially in a snake draft.  I don’t know if enough time is spent trying to determine who should be picks 5 through 7.

 

2022 Rapture Recap

Golf trips — especially destination trips — are always going to have their hiccups. In 2019 we had torrential rain forcing us to change courses the morning of Four-Ball. We went to Orlando in 2020 during COVID, something that could only happen in our great state of Florida. And last year I got one of the tee times wrong... the first sign of impending dementia.

So when Hurricane Ian flooded Sebring, it shouldn't be a surprise we were able to quickly adapt and change the destination. We got lucky with the course and housing availability, but our Club's expertise in weather patterns and our extensive course database told us where to look.

 

The decision was Dunellon/Inverness in a repeat of 2017's Rapture, with Skyview subbing in for Black Diamond. That competition ended in our only tie, as Katie prevailed beating Gary with a double bogey on the first playoff hole. It was awful to watch, but quite memorable.

The story line this year was "Skill vs. Strokes." Never in the history of the Rapture have the teams been so lopsided in average and median Handicap Index. For years, Darren has been dying on the "strokes mean everything" hill. I'm personally not so sure about that, because we use 80% allowance (60%/40% in Chapman) which benefits skill. But if we were going to squash this debate, this was the year to do it.

The oddsmakers heavily favored Dave's Orange Crush team. As did the Juliette Falls bartenders and staff. They loved Team Orange, and found Team Green to be creepy and most likely to live in a beat-up white van without any back windows.

 

Definitely the team with diverse 401(k)s.

But an argument could be made that Orange's "skill" wasn't real. Maybe it was all vanity numbers. Half of them lowered their Index in the final revision. And with a major storm bearing down on Florida... you need sandbags!

 

Looks like Green's van picked up their first child!

Day 1 - Chapman

Candler Hills was a lot of fun. We were treated to a very solid lunch in the clubhouse, and the staff enjoyed our attendance. Despite being over-priced, it was perfect for modified alt-shot. No water hazards on the course, and very fast greens without flat areas. Even with a simple layout, it's disappointing how much better it is than courses in Tampa.

The matches were mostly predictable. Faz/Reid are a great Chapman team, especially receiving strokes. Melberg/Chandler had a slow start but ultimately got their shit together to run away with the back nine.

• I have to note that the Gypsy Voodoo Doll made an appearance, and Casey/Moostie immediately lost three of the next four holes. Seems the sage has worn off.

Gorecki/Danny put up a good fight, but ran out of strokes on the last five holes to complete the upset. Speaking of upsets... huge win for Gary/Troy over Dave/Travis. Something I didn't expect, and at the time felt like it could be an important point for Green.

Day 2 - Four-Ball

Juliette Falls is a great course, and refreshing to see run in a top-notch manner. It's affordable, great conditions, cart service on both nines, with a fun bar and restaurant. It's a shame it's so far from Tampa. I can see our Members requesting a return Rapture based on this course alone.

Anyway, Troy/Moostie waxed Ho/Darren — which I think everyone predicted. Danny sat in the cart for most of his match, which explains why he and Faz only won a single hole against Melberg/Brendan.

 

Reid/Gorecki were 3-down early and scrapped their way back to All Square... until some controversy about Gorecki missing a non-conceded one-footer. Arguments over gimmies in team match play warm my soul. And yes, Gorecki only missed the putt because they didn't give it to him.

Casey/Gary was pretty much just Casey — as Gary contributed on two holes, while Casey shot a 39 (gross) on the front. HOWEVER... Chandler (#1 pick overall and #1 in all our hearts) was only +4 (gross) through 16 holes. That allowed Geoff to masterfully make bogey (net par) on 17 to seal the victory.

At this point Orange was up 5 - 3. They were confident, but Rapture veterans know a two point lead going into Singles isn't much. In the 8 previous years, a team has earned 3+ net points in the final session four times. In other words, Singles tends to be a blow-out 50% of the time. But could Captain Troy's team smoke and stroke their way to glory? Proving Dave's team was filled with Beyond Meat and Impossible Handicaps... merely intimating "good" golfers?

Yes.

Day 3 - Singles 

Orange only needed 3.5 points to win (3 to tie). Green needed 5 points to force a playoff.

Early on (4-ish holes in), Green was leading 6-2. Only the first four matches were close: Geoff/Troy, Brendan/Gorecki, Chandler/Faz, Darren/Moostie. Three of those matches contained golfers of similar skill, and Gorecki was getting an embarrassing amount of strokes — so it made sense.

A few holes later, the other matches were completely lopsided:

• Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 8) - Danny just wanted to be at the Juliette Falls bar.
• Travis led Gary 4 Up (thru 7) - To be expected. Gary's game is in a slump and he drank beer out of a shoe the day before.
• Reid led Melberg 4 Up (thru 8) - Somewhat shocking. Not that Reid couldn't win... but a blow-out of the 2nd best golfer in the Club?!
• Casey led Ho 5 Up (thru 8) - Wait... the best golfer in our Club is also getting spanked?!

At this point I was commenting to Faz how bullshit the whole situation was. A lot of the historical chokers (Geoff, Brendan, Gorecki, Chandler, Faz, Darren) went off early so we didn't have to decide the competition. And yet it seemed we'd soon be the only matches still on the course!

With Dave and Travis looking like winners, Orange needed one more point from those first four matches to force a playoff. Allowing the Captains to win the Moses on their own! 

 

Let's fast-forward through the 12th hole...

• Troy led Geoff 4 Up (thru 12) - Geoff turned into a putter on the hood of Troy's car. He gone.
• Gorecki led Brendan 4 Up (thru 12) - Chandler gave Brendan some pamphlets explaining how to cope with losing to Gorecki in Rapture Singles. I'd say it gets better... but it doesn't.
• Casey led Ho 6 Up (thru 12) - I bet you think this post is about you, don't you?
  
• Reid led Melberg 1 Up (thru 12) - Hang on! Orange has a new path to the Winner's Circle!
  
• Travis led Gary 3 Up (thru 12) - This is elder abuse. Just end it already.
  
• Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 12) - Dave prolonging the match until the aliens arrive.
  
• Chandler/Faz & Darren/Moosite All Square (thru 12) - "God dammit! All eyes are going to be on our foursome down the stretch." -Chandler, multiple times
   

Every close match has a few crazy moments that define the outcome. Here's what I witnessed:

• Chandler took down Faz by making pars on 14 through 17. Faz had a tough break (tee shot unexpectedly going OB on 15)... but when the Par Train is rolling, it's wise to get off the tracks.
• Moostie made a natural 7 on the par-3 14th... to win the hole... and go 2 Up. Darren was mentally defeated at that point. Never mind that Darren chipped in for birdie on the next hole, only to be covered up by Moostie with a long putt for birdie. This is the Tall Mike we all love, and hate to play against.

Orange should have the three points needed to force a playoff. But some new shit had come to light behind my group:

• Melberg won 16 to go 1 Up, possibly giving Orange the Moses, as Reid didn't stroke on 17.
  
• Gary won four holes in a row to go 1 Up through 16 on Travis. There are no strokes left in this match. I'm told it was such an "out-of-this-world collapse," the aliens Dave summoned turned their ship around. They'd given up on saving humanity (again) due to Travis' mind-boggling course management. If humans can't hold a 4 Up lead on half-blind Gary, they are a doomed species. We're talking Topor levels of bad decisions. Not being able to give each other tips/advice was a huge detriment.

We watched as Travis and Gary traded pars on 17. Then Gary put his 2nd shot into the greenside lake on 18. Only for Travis to duff his approach, chunk a chip, and two-putt to match double bogeys. Green gets another point.

Reid and Melberg both had good looks at the 17th green. But Melberg pulls his approach short-left. He then makes a terrible chip that barely gets on the green. Leaves a putt short above the most tricked-up pin placement of the day. And ultimately records a double-bogey 6.

Meanwhile Reid goes long in two. Stubs a chip. Putts it a few feet short. Argues for a gimmie (allegedly he thought he was stroking). And finally sinks the putt for 5 to square the match. 

 

On to the final hole with the entire Rapture watching, and Reid getting a stroke. Melberg looked to be in a good spot off the tee, but again pulled his approach left. Reid's ball was long through the fairway and on a side-hill lie. But he finds the center of the green with a beautiful 2nd shot. It was all he needed to win his team the Moses outright.

Well deserved champions.

Did we settle the debate of strokes vs. skill? I don't think so. A two point victory was a nice change from recent blow-outs. Perhaps the handicap system just works. And it's most important to be in good form. And sometimes golf is random enough that the greatest golfer in Club history goes Ho-and-three.

A man who picks winners (and Danny).

It remains to be seen how this Rapture will affect future drafts. But the weekend was a blast. I hope you all enjoyed the laughs, debates, and competition. Good luck on your qualification to the 2023 event!

2022 Rapture Participants

Rapture 2022 - Final Prep

A few odds and ends before competition kicks off tomorrow:

• Everyone should be car pooling. Green House was the only one that said anything, but only 3 cars allowed at that property. If you people have more than three cars, we can probably put one at the Mixed House.
• I'll send a big 16-person Rapture text tonight with ALL the addresses. We can't go to the houses until after our first round, which will end after 5:30pm... and it's about a 25 minute drive back to town. I reckon we'll quickly clean up and head out for food. But each team should coordinate with each other.
• Rules Reminders:
• You can't help your "teammate" read greens in Singles (Sunday). Everyone is on their own. Mistakes happen, but please don't do it on purpose.
• If an opponent concedes your next stroke, you must pick up and move out of the way. Continuing to play — especially if it delays the match or helps your partner — is a violation of USGA Rule 23.6.
• Don't interfere with other Matches. It's great fun to watch the final parings come in, but be respectful. Let us choke on our own. We don't need your help. And remember, this is a highly prestigious event!

I think we are all set in GolfGameBook. But the physical scorecard is the Bible for hole-by-hole handicaps. Make sure to use the physical scorecard as the official record, and force the app to match if you need to.

 

Picture day is tomorrow so wear your best team colors. 

Oh, a bunch of you still owe me $81. Send that over.

Rapture 2022 - Housing

Everyone owes me $81.00 for housing ($131 - $50 deposit already paid). If you recall, you actually paid me a $100 deposit, but the other half of that was for our Rapture "pay-for-performance" payouts:

Entry Fee - $50
Each Point Earned - $20
Winning the Rapture - $60

 

We have three houses: Green House, Orange House, and Mixed House. While I entertained a few "suggestions" on how to fill the Mixed House, I ultimately settled on our Club's four oldest souls: Chandler, Darren, Gary, Gorecki (three of us are in the same car, and Gorecki falls asleep at 8pm).

 

The Mixed House is close-ish to the Green House (10 min walk / 2 min drive).

The Orange House is a 5-ish min drive away from the Green House.

Actual address will be texted to the members of each house on Thursday or Friday.

Rapture 2022 - Official Handicaps

I'm working on getting GolfGameBook to update the hole-by-hole handicaps on a couple of courses. Keep in mind if you're running the app, the actual scores in the Rapture do not matter. Use the hole-by-hole handicaps on the physical scorecard, and just make sure the correct team wins each hole.

Handicaps in parenthesis:

Day 1 - Chapman

Ho / Geoff vs. Faz / Reid (2)

Dave / Travis vs. Troy / Gary (7)

Darren / Brendan vs. Gorecki / Danny (9)

Melberg / Chandler vs. Casey / Tall Mike (7)

Day 2 - Four-Ball

Dave / Travis (8) vs. Reid (7) / Gorecki (21)

Melberg / Brendan (11) vs. Faz (5) / Danny (19)

Chandler / Geoff (10) vs. Casey (4) /Gary (7)

Ho / Darren (11) vs. Tall Mike (11) / Troy (11)

 

Day 3 - Singles

Geoff (3) vs. Troy

Brendan vs. Gorecki (9)

Chandler vs. Faz (1)

Darren (1) vs. Tall Mike

Dave vs. Danny (17)

Travis vs. Gary (2)

Melberg vs. Reid (6)

Ho vs. Casey (7)

2022 - Rapture Venue Change

We're bailing on Sebring and headed up to the Lecanto / Dunnellon area. It's mostly the same trip we did in 2017. I had to scramble and secure us three (3) AirBNBs... which are non-refundable. You'll be paying me for the lodging - minus the deposit you've already sent me.

The area got maybe two inches of rain during the storm. It's dry and in great shape. But booking this last minute was not ideal for tee times etc. Please note the schedule changes for next week:

• We're only staying two (2) nights: Friday, October 7th and Saturday, October 8th. If you took PTO on Thursday, you no longer need to do that.

• Friday, October 7th - Chapman at Candler Hills - 1pm start
• This was the only time any course could give us on Friday. Because of the late start, there's no need for a Thursday night stay. Be sure to give yourself enough time to get up there and warm up.
• Saturday, October 8th - Four Ball at Juliette Falls - 9:12am start
• Course is in great shape and is quite challenging. Thus, we can't shouldn't do Chapman here, and instead will play Four Ball (as we did in 2017).
• Sunday, October 9th - Singles at Skyview - 10:45am start
• This is the earliest they could get us out. It's near the AirBNBs and very close to the Veterans/SunCoast expressway.
  

We have three solid courses... three houses each with a pool... the weekend should cost about $70ish less due to us removing a night... the weather will be perfect... and we're closer to Tampa.

Rooming assignments will be sent out later this week, and look for some Venmo / PayPal requests once I get the final totals. I still need to coordinate with two different rental companies, as obtaining the keys might be an issue if they don't let me get them before our Friday round.

Official Rapture handicaps will be posted during the week. 

Thanks for your patience.

2022 Rapture Update

We are still on. Update to follow once I have all the details booked. Which is going slow because I still don’t have power. 

Moostenbrink

While many seasons blend together, for me the Summer 2022 Season will always be easy to remember as the Summer of Moostenbrink.  I was able to play in six events and played all six rounds with Tall Mike.  It created a special opportunity to extensively study the Moostie in the wild. 

We all know the Moostie is a unique creature.  Here is a little breakdown of his golf game and what, in my opinion, has led to his success in the league.

Golf swing breakdown.  Mike is more of a picker than a compressor of the golf ball.  Faz comes to mind as someone that is the opposite.  I would guess that the bottom of Mike’s swing arc with iron shots is pretty much at impact rather than an inch or two after the ball.  This helps explain why Mike is such a good iron player from the fairway, but struggles a bit more from the rough.  I also think this is why he struggles somewhat out of greenside bunkers: it’s tough to consistently “pick” the ball cleanly on short sand shots.  His swing helps him hit up on the ball on tee shots though.  When he gets his 3 wood working off the tee, he can string together a lot of good holes in a row. 

I wonder how much of Mike’s swing is predicated on his back issues and, therefore, whether swing changes would even be feasible.  His swing speed really comes from the gigantic arc that he can create given his height and long arms.  He does not use his lower body to generate much of his speed.  If he created more force with his lower body through the ground, this would help him generate more swing speed and would also create a more descending blow at impact.  It’s a tough balancing act though.  A steeper angle at impact has its own faults for amateur golfers (i.e. more fat shots and pull hooks).  It would also create a lot more stress on his back.  It’s tough to imagine Tall Mike making it through 18 holes if he tried to imitate Joaquin Niemann’s swing.

Another reason why I would hesitate to make any drastic changes with Mike’s swing is the fact that he has shown the ability to greatly improve his golf game with the swing he has in place.  When Mike joined the League, he was around a 24 handicap and he is now a 16 handicap.  The only other player that I can think of that has managed to drop his handicap that much is Mike Hauch.

Moving on to what has made Moostie successful in the League, I think it really comes down to his level of commitment.

Mike is committed in three different ways.  First, he is committed to the League itself.  Despite having two kids and a wife that has to work some weekends, he plays in a good amount of events each season.  If Mike misses an event, there was probably no legitimate way that he could have made it.  Second, he commits as much time as he can to each event.  Generally, Mike will get to the course early to get in a proper warm up and won't leave the range until he is ready.  He doesn’t get distracted by silly things like being on the tee box when it is his Group’s turn to tee off.  After all, there are four players in the Group.  Standing on the box while the first three players tee off is a waste of valuable practice time.  Third, he commits to each and every shot during a round.  We mock the amount of time he stands over a putt, the amount of practice swings that he takes, and not pulling the trigger until he is 100% ready.  However, how many strokes do you waste each round?  If most of us thought about each and every shot and then committed to the shot itself, I think most of us would be able to shave a couple of strokes off our score each round without doing anything else to improve our games. 

I don’t think that it is coincidence that the two guys in the League that have four Cups both have great attendance and also an appreciation for every shot during a round.  Winning an event often comes down to one or two strokes.  For me, I typically make my bad swings on shots that are fairly easy.  It’s generally on a wide open hole that I completely block a drive or a straight forward, bump and run chip that I hit fat.  Those lapses in concentration add up over a round and a season.  I think Chandler thinks his way around a golf course as well as anyone in the League, but Moostie probably concentrates on every shot better than anyone.

 Lastly, here are just a few things that are truly unique to Tall Mike that I've noticed over the years:

1.       The putter pump fake.  Have you ever seen another player line up their putt, take their stance, address the ball, take their backswing… and then stop?  I guess sometimes you will see a professional golfer stop and then step away and restart their process.  Mike will stop mid backswing, bring the putter back to the ball, and then will proceed to hit his putt sometimes a second or two later and sometimes after 5 or 6 seconds of standing over the ball.  I have never seen anyone else do that once, let alone at least once a round.

2.       The mid-round rolling on the ground knees to chest stretching.  Despite all the warm up time, or perhaps because of it, you will undoubtedly see Mike laying on a tee box at some point in the round rolling around on the ground trying to loosen up his back.  

3.       Trying to find the perfect practice swing.  There are plenty of players that try to visualize their shot before they hit it.  I have never seen someone try to mimic the perfect swing with their practice swing though and continue to make practice swings until they find it.  For me at least, it would be almost impossible to make the exact same swing two times in a row.  I don’t want to waste my good swing on the practice swing and then step up to the ball, get half way through my backswing or at the top of my swing, and realize that something is in a different position than in my “perfect” swing.  Without needing a MRI machine, I think it’s safe to say that Tall Mike and Dustin Johnson’s brain activity during a golf swing are going to be polar opposites.

 

2022 - Rapture Draft Results

Since most of you won't physically be at the draft on Saturday night... the results can be viewed here in not-so-real-time: 

Draft Results:

Pairings:

 

Worst Golfer in League History

Let me start off by saying it was very entertaining looking through the stats to try to determine the worst golfer in League history.  While our League has a few “decent” golfers, we have an abundance of terrible golfers.  To narrow down the field, which was difficult, I looked at the following categories:  bottom five in win percentage, bottom five in career earnings, and bottom five in scoring average. 

Worst winning percentage:

Josh Crum: 0.00%

JW Ferguson: 2.83%

Brian Topor: 5.26%

Dan Rogers: 5.26%

Mike Hauch: 5.33%

 

Worst Career Earning:

JW Ferguson:  ($553.87)

Danny MacLean: ($371.66)

Robert Reid: ($327.66)

Mike Gorecki: ($300.41)

Adam Lynch: ($300.11)

 

Worst Career Scoring Average:

Danny MacLean: 106.8

Mike Gorecki:  104.8

Brian Topor: 102.1

JW Ferguson: 101.5

Josh Crum: 100.9

 

This narrowed the list down to nine names.  I went ahead and removed Adam, Reid, Hauch and Dan, as their scoring averages are all under 100.  Hauch might be (has to be?) the worst player when it comes to Exhibition Scores compared to League Scores, but that post will have to come at a later date.

 The real contenders are the following five individuals in no specific order:

Josh Crum:  A lot of Members have enjoyed immediate success upon joining the League, Crum is not one of those people.  He has yet to win, so he has the lowest winning percentage at 0.00%.  He does not crack the top five in lowest career earnings, but that is likely due to the small amount of events played.  He probably holds the longest consecutive Bad Pitcher Owed streak, but I’m not 100% sure on that.  I think Big John had a great (awful?) streak going at one time.  He does have a few stats going in his favor though when it comes to not being the worst player in League history.  His scoring average is just over 100, which is significantly better than Gorecki and Danny Mac.  His Greenie average is 0.43 and Long Drive average is .22, which are very good compared to his competition.

JW Ferguson:  This may seem like the obvious choice based on the combination of win percentage, career earnings, and the fact that he has the longest losing streak in League history.  However, he also has some things he can point to make a good case that he isn’t the worst player.  His scoring average, Greenie average (.38), and Long Drive average (.26) are better than Gorecki and Danny Mac.

Brian Topor:  Like Crum, Topor has not logged a large number of events (19 total).  He has managed to get one victory and it was a Major.  He also has the highest Greenie average in this group (0.57), so I think it is safe to remove his name from consideration given the small sample size.

Danny MacLean:  I was somewhat surprised to see that Danny Mac had the worst Scoring Average in the League (106.8).  Not only is it the worst average, but it is the worst by a full two shots (Gorecki: 104.8).  I haven’t played many rounds with Danny, but I don’t think he has a terrible golf swing and was surprised by the Scoring Average and low Greenie average (.25).  He also has the second worst Career Earnings.  I hate to say it, but his stats make a good case for being the worst. 

Last, but maybe not the Worst, Mike Gorecki:  If we were asked to immediately name the worst golfer in the League, I think we have all been brainwashed to immediately respond with Gorecki.  However, there are quite a few stats that Gorecki could point out to make his argument that he isn’t the worst.  His win percentage (8.5%) is head and shoulders above his competition.  In fact, he has more wins than the other four guys on this list have combined.  He also does not have the worst Scoring Average or Greenie average (.30 compared to Danny’s .25).  He has finished second in the Season Standings multiple times and has the most memorable/heartbreaking second place finish in League history. 

One thing that does not show up in the stats that I have to bring up though is the fact that Gorecki has the only swing in the League that negatively impacts my score.  If I am in Gorecki’s group, I have trouble making solid contact with the golf ball by the time I get to the back nine.  Whereas you watch Melberg’s swing and you wonder how he ever hits a bad shot, you watch Gorecki’s swing and sometimes wonder how the ball even advances.  I took advice from Irish Dave and I will literally not watch him take practice swings or hit the ball as much as possible.  I am not surprised that he has a much better match play record than the other guys on this list due to the negative impact he can have on his opponent.  I don’t know how to factor this into his ranking, but it is something that separates him from the rest.

Despite the fact that these guys all really suck at golf, I’m glad they are in the League and hope they know that they make the rest of us feel a little better about our own golf games.  If I had to assign an order, I think I would go 1.  Danny Mac,  2.  JW,  3.  Gorecki,  4.  Crum, 5.  Topor.  I would give Gorecki some credit for the fact that he has so many more wins than everyone else and I would give Crum some slack based on the small number of events played. 

2022 Rapture Draft

As mentioned previously, the Captains have decided to hold the Rapture Draft at Gorecki's house (Westchase).

Event will be next Saturday, September 10th at 6pm.

10542 Greensprings Dr, Tampa FL, 33626

I reckon it'll just be four of us, but comment if you're joining.

Moostie - Season Performance Metrics

I also have a few things I've been sitting on. But if Buchert is going to provide that sweet, sweet #content... I might as well put this out there to aid his post on Tall Mike:

My takeaways:

• People forget how many seasons Moostie has played.
• His Index was really high when he collected his first two Cups back-to-back. It then sharply dropped, and so did his standings (despite playing most events). This is to be expected, and his career should really be divided into two parts: before and after his 9th season (Spring 2018).
  
• He now contends for titles every time his index gets above 16 and he is able to attend 7+ events.
• This past season he played all 9... his Index was 17... in perfect position to win, and finished 3rd.
• In contrast — his 16th season — he had zero chance to win with a 14.6 Index. His worst finish ever.
  

The Greatest Golfer in Club History

 

The Greatest Golfer in Club History

I plan on posting a few times on the Blog this off-season just to keep the #content train rolling since we won’t have any posts on upcoming events or recaps.  I usually have some free time in the morning before my daughter wakes up.  One of the things I do while having a cup of coffee is check the Blog for any updates or new posts.  99% of the content that we have on the Blog is from Chandler and, while I thank him for his time and dedication to the League, I also feel like the rest of us could be contributing more. 

I have written a few things over the last two weeks, but most of them have to do with me and my golf game.  I did not intentionally set out to do this, but I just didn’t play a lot of golf with most of the people in the League this past season.  I played six rounds and was matched up with Tall Mike all six times, Faz and Topor three times (I think), and Troy twice.  For a few of those rounds, we either had a threesome or had a guest playing as the fourth.  It is hard to write about someone else’s golf game when you did not get to see them play.  I would love to be able to do a breakdown of what has happened to Gary’s golf game, but I have not been fortunate enough to witness that train wreck firsthand.  I do have a write up for Tall Mike though that I hope you all will find entertaining.

However, since most of the content is going to be tied to me in some way, I wanted to kick things off with a post that has nothing to do with me and that is:

The League has been in existence for 10 years, who is the greatest golfer in League history?

To start things off, I want to clarify that I would consider the Greatest Golfer in League History and the Greatest Champion in League History two different things.  (Don’t worry, I have a separate post written to break down the Greatest Champion in League History.)  The Greatest Golfer in League History could be the same person as the Greatest Champion in League History, but that does not have to be the case.

As our League uses an imperfect system to try to level the playing field between golfers of different skill levels, the best player is not always going to be the Champion at the end of a season.  Furthermore, the best golfer at a given moment in time is not necessarily the greatest golfer in League history.  Tom Brady does not win the MVP every year, but he is considered by most to be the GOAT.  His sustained excellence has separated him from his peers.  I don’t think that we have a Tom Brady of the League; someone that has separated himself from other players in the league to such a degree that there is no longer room for a meaningful discussion.  If we did, this would be a very short post.  So here are the contenders, in no specific order, and I’m interested to see if there is a consensus as to who should be considered the Greatest Golfer in League History:

1.     Chandler Brown.  The argument for why he should be considered the greatest is rock solid.  He has the most events played, most wins, most 2^nd place finishes, a scoring average of 85.6, the most Greenies, the most Long Drives, the most Sandies, and four Championships.  He is like the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar of our League.  His longevity and sustained excellence really stands out when you compare his stats to the rest of the League.  Are some of his numbers inflated due to the first few seasons of the League when we had less Members?  Sure they are.  That is the reason why there is room for debate when it comes down to Chandler or one of the guys listed below.  His win percentage is 11.7%, he averages 1.05 Greenies per round, and his Long Drive win percentage is 29.7%.  His match play record is a very respectable 16-8-4.

2.     Mike Oostenbrink.  He has the most Modern Era Championships (four), 6 Majors (just one less than Chandler), and has the most epic Championship in League history when he won the final two events of the Summer 2020 Season to steal the Cup away from Gorecki.  He has done this playing in 128 events, which is 60 less events than Chandler has played in.  However, his scoring average is 94.3, his win percentage is 10.1%, Greenies per round is 0.77, and Long Drive win percentage is 18%.  In my opinion, Tall Mike is like the Robert Horry of the League.  He has some of the most clutch performances and shots that we will remember forever, but nobody is going to say he was a better player than the greats of that era:  Jordan, Kobe, Duncan, etc.

3.      Dave Harrington.  Irish Dave has a scoring average of 83.5 and he has put up that average while playing many rounds from a harder set of tees.  Comparing Dave to Chandler and Tall Mike is not an apples to apples comparison.  Dave’s Greenies per round is 1.11, which is better than Tall Mike and Chandler’s averages, but how much “extra credit” should Dave get due to the fact that he wins those Greenies from one or two sets of tee boxes farther back then the rest of the guys in his group?  As far as Long Drive, his win percentage is 27.3% and is better than Chandler and Tall Mike.  Once again, he is doing that while giving up yardage to the rest of his group (usually).  He also has a great match play record of 15-5-2.  His win percentage is 9.4%, which is lower than Chandler and Tall Mike.  I don’t know if that can be blamed on tee boxes.  He also only has half as many wins as Chandler (11 compared to 22).  Dave is like Giannis or Michael Jordan, where the stats alone are great but somehow do not tell the whole story.

4.       Chris Melberg.  Melberg has only played in 34 events, so he has not had time to collect the same career stats as the other guys on this list.  Nonetheless, his short time in the League has already produced some numbers that put him in consideration as the greatest.  He has the lowest scoring average at 82.6.  He has the lowest gross score to par in League history when he went -6 at Southport Springs.  His match play record is excellent, 5-0-1.  He averages 1.14 Greenies per round.  His Long Drive win percentage is 20.6%.  Like Irish Dave, he has played many of his rounds from a harder tee box than everyone else in his group.  Despite his low handicap index, his win percentage is still a respectable 8.8%.  To switch up the sports as far as his comparison, I would say he’s kind of like Chargers QB Justin Herbert.  His stats from his first few seasons are comparable to the best of all time.  However, he has yet to win a Championship and just hasn’t had enough time to rack up the career statistics that some other guys have.

Some people were left off the top contenders list and here is why:

5.       Dan Rogers:  His scoring average is 85.0, but that is more than 2 shots worse than Melberg.  Dan and Melberg have very comparable stats, but Melberg’s scoring average gave him the advantage.

6.       Darren Broom.  He has the most Majors and a great win percentage (13%).  His scoring average is 94.0 though.  Tall Mike has a similar scoring average (94.3) and has double the Cups.  He got the nod over The Baron.

7.       Faz, Gary and Reid:  These three guys have all racked up an impressive amount of wins, Greenies and Long Drives.  However, they do not stack up well when compared to Chandler’s stats and their scoring averages are higher as well.

The rest of you (myself included) do not deserve a mention. 

To be honest, when I started writing this, I thought Chandler would blow everyone away.  I didn’t realize how great of a ball striker Irish Dave is until I started looking at his Greenies per round and Long Drive win percentage.  I think it’s very close between those two guys right now and if we check back in another 10 years, Melberg will probably be right there with them.

FBGC Masters - Summer 2022 Recap

Casey fired an impressive +1 (gross) on the front nine of Crooked Cat to take a huge lead on Sunday. It was basically mistake-free golf, where even a classic Casey-top off the first tee resulted in an up-and-down bogey.

Building a huge lead with a score of -7 (net) through 11 holes, all he had to do was keep the wheels on to win his 11th career tournament and 4th Major. He was in prime position to eject on the 12th hole, but managed to chip in from off the green for another scrambling bogey.

By that point, Troy had made the turn at -4 (net) and was looking to just tie Casey for another season championship. But his hopes slipped away with a double at 10, triple at 12, and no pars on the back nine. It was a valiant effort, but Troy ultimately came up 410 points short — basically one more victory.

Since we did this exercise with Gorecki a few seasons ago, I'll go ahead and say it... Troy lost the Cup by three strokes in Week 1, when he finished the round at Fox Hollow with a triple and quintuple bogey. Shaving three strokes off those two holes would have given him a solo victory, and knocked Buchert down to solo 2nd.

--------------------------------

But that shit didn't happen. And so we have a very deserving new champion in Buchert — the first person since Spring 2015 to win four events in a season. His scoring average was 1.5 strokes lower than his career average... and 3.8 lower than last season. I'm not sure what finally clicked, but some of you might want to ask him.

Great season, Buchert. Welcome to the Champions Dinner.

 

I think Brendan has the Cup... so hopefully that makes its way to you.

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We now head into our long off-season, where many of you desperately need a physical and/or mental break. We'll start back up next January. In the meantime, be sure to post any playing opportunities if you need people.

 

As a reminder, The Rapture is October 7th - 9th (check in at hotel on the 6th). There will be many Rapture specific posts next month, but it looks like the Captains (Dave & Troy) have decided to host a Draft Party at Gorecki's house. I'm waiting for Gorecki to tell me the exact date.

I'll see some of you then. Thanks for another fun year, everyone!

 There are two charity scrambles coming up in the off season that I wanted to give some attention to.  

The first is the Shriners one that didn't happen last year. Frankly, it seems to be on a bad day for us since it is right after the Rapture on October 10th.  I have golf bachelor party the weekend after that, too.  So I probably should be responsible and work that Monday and not golf 7/10 days and keep it at six. But I figured I would post it here if anyone one was interested.  It i at River Hills in Valrico.  

The second is for the Humane Society on Monday, November 14th at Carrollwood CC.  I can make that one.

They are both $800 for a foursome which includes two meals, drinks and probably the usual swag and silent auctions.  I bet the Humane Society will have puppies, which is always nice.  

Shriner's Doug Cox Memorial

Humane Society @ Carrollwood CC