Here's our schedule for next year. Plan your vacations accordingly:
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Monday, November 14, 2022
First Tee - Tampa Bay Fundraising
Good afternoon my FBGC friends! Several of you have received this in an email, but I thought it might be good to put it in a post in case I didn't have the correct email or was missing an email altogether. Chandler has already started the ball rolling with a donation, so big thanks to Dear Leader.
Sunday, November 6, 2022
Club Outing
The USGA used to require we host non golf related Club events. Even though we aren’t under their tyrannical rule, we are having an official off-season outing this Friday - November 11th - at Red Dog. 8pm. Come out and bring your WAGs if you’d like to be social.
Friday, November 4, 2022
2022 Winter Board Meeting Notes
- Buchert suggested the ability to raise (and I assume lower) handicaps based on the perceived playing ability of a Member. This was rejected 0-5.
- Technically, the Handicap Committee (which is the Board in our case) has the ability to do this under USGA Rules of Handicapping 7.1. But that's typically reserved for injuries. And you people are only mentally injured.
- Buchert suggested "gimmies" after "good shots," which he claims happens "one or two times per round." This was rejected 1-4, with John voting in favor.
- Faz doubted the frequency of these alleged "good shots," while Chandler argued the best part of hitting a "good shot" to "a couple of inches" was slowly walking up and taking your time tapping it in as a way to troll your playing partners.
- Gorecki wanted more random pairings, outside of the 3 we have in our first four weeks. This was rejected 0-5.
- While not the worst idea we've ever heard, the Board didn't feel like a change was needed.
- Gorecki wanted to add a rule for bailing, which historically has been called "Gorecki-ing." This failed 0-5.
- Faz wants Gorecki to name courses we are missing out on due to un-signed contracts. Chandler already explained on a previous post how this rarely comes up. Chandler also reiterated that if any Member costs the Club money — for any reason — we will recoup it.
- Melberg wants to scrap all handicaps and just play straight-up from different tee boxes, based on your Index. This failed 0-5.
- Buchert wants the defending Champion to pick his tee time. This was approved 4-1, with Chandler dissenting.
- We're going to allow the defending Champ's preference for the first three (non Skins) events of the season. Pairings will still be random, and if you're in the Champ's group, you'll go out when they desire. Skins Game will continue to pair by Index, allowing the better (and faster) players to go out first.
- A new Cash-Out policy was approved 5-0. Starting immediately, you can request Dear Leader to send you any balance above two seasons worth of dues during the winter off-season. Currently that number would be $270.
- Coincidentally, we realized Geoff had a balance of $271. He immediately made a request, and was paid in full.
| Physical cash payouts are at the discretion of Dear Leader. |
- Handicap Indexes used at the Rapture will lock at the end of the Summer season.
- This will disincentivize any manipulating of Indexes, and hopefully allow people to focus on improving before the event.
- The Rapture Draft will be held ASAP after the end of the Summer season.
- Rapture qualifying — including Captain qualifying — will now lock at the end of the Summer season (previously locked after Summer Week 3).
- World Golf Rankings will still be used, which is based on a rolling 18 events.
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
2022 Winter Board Meeting
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Rapture 2022 Gambling Recap
It’s a very exciting time of year for professional
baseball. The MLB season is FINALLY
coming to a close and that means it is LIDOM time. That stands for the Liga de Beisbol Profesional
de la Republica Dominicana for the one or two of you out there that didn’t
already know. Anyway, last Friday I was
calling my favorite Caribbean sportsbook manager, Luis, with my picks for
opening weekend and I decided to check in to see how they fared with the big
upset in the Rapture 2022. Hopefully,
they didn’t take it on the chin too hard.
Luis said that the betting “action” was way down this
year. Something about missing not one,
but two Big JW’s in this year’s event.
There was a big wave of money when the Old Man House was announced, but
that was the only action of the week that caused any moves.
Overall, the sportsbook did quite well. I was somewhat surprised as it looked like
they had the Orange team winning 11 – 5.
Since there was very little betting on the event and they may not
continue to do odds on the event in the future, Luis let me in on some secrets
regarding how the odds were set and why the house almost always wins.
1.
All of the matches where one side was a -110 and
the other side was +100 were 50/50 matches in the eyes of the sportsbook. A small favorite is designated to help
generate interest, but ultimately they are coin flip matches. Either side should win about 50% of the
time. So how did the sportsbook pick a
favorite for the 10 of the 16 matches that were designated -110/+100? They flipped a coin.
2.
That left 6 matches that the sportsbook did not
consider coin flip matches. From most
lopsided odds to least lopsided odds, those matches were:
a.
Ho / Geoff: +150
Faz / Reid: -150
b.
Chandler / Geoff: -130
Casey / Gary: +120
c.
Ho: +120
Casey: -130
d.
Dave: -130
Danny: +110
e.
Ho / Darren: +110
Tall Mike / Troy: -120
f.
Darren / Brendan: -120
Gorecki
/ Danny: +110
Before
the event, I did notice one thing and pointed it out on the blog. Ho was considered an underdog in every match
despite having the lowest handicap in the league. I didn’t realize one thing going into the
Rapture that I later found interesting:
Geoff, Casey and Darren were all favored heavily in a match but also
considered heavy underdogs in another match.
I brought this up with Luis. He
wouldn’t give me the exact methodology used, but the sportsbook created a
Player Value Index (“PVI”) for each player.
The only times that the odds differed from a 50/50 match is when there
was a statistically significant difference in the individual PVI or combined
PVI for the teams. Just about anyone
could infer this from looking at the odds, but Luis confirmed that the two
lowest PVI’s belonged to Ho and Danny. 5
of the 6 non-coin flip matches had them as underdogs.
The
matchup of Chandler / Geoff -130 versus Casey / Gary +120, then jumped out at
me because it did not involve the lower end of the PVI. However, it did have Geoff going from a huge
underdog in Day 1 to a statistically significant favorite in Day 2. It also had Casey as a big underdog, whereas
Casey was a going to be a huge favorite in Day 3. Once again, Luis wouldn’t go into too much
detail, but he mentioned something about going from a low PVI partner to a high
PVI partner and also that an individual player’s PVI will change based on the
format being played. I guess what he was
telling me is that they think Geoff is better in the Four Ball format than he
is in Chapman and that having Chandler as a partner is much better than being
paired with Ho, at least for this year’s Rapture.
Maybe
this all seems obvious now, but is worth noting that the favorite won all
six of these matches. In events
like this, people like to bet on the underdog because they think they are
getting better value. After all, if the
handicap system was not flawed, then you would expect each team to have a 50%
chance of winning. If each team in these
six matches did in fact have a 50/50 chance of winning, then the odds that the
sportsbook would have gotten all six matches correct is roughly 1.56%.
One thing
I have noticed in the team golf events that I’ve played in is the winner and
loser is often determined by the bottom half of the draft, not the top. Everyone now knows that Dave picking Ho over
Gorecki was a huge mistake and it is interesting that the very last pick in the
draft seemed to have the biggest impact.
I know that captains often spend a lot of time fretting over who they
are going to pick first, especially in a snake draft. I don’t know if enough time is spent trying
to determine who should be picks 5 through 7.
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
2022 Rapture Recap
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| Definitely the team with diverse 401(k)s. |
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| Looks like Green's van picked up their first child! |
- I have to note that the Gypsy Voodoo Doll made an appearance, and Casey/Moostie immediately lost three of the next four holes. Seems the sage has worn off.
- Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 8) - Danny just wanted to be at the Juliette Falls bar.
- Travis led Gary 4 Up (thru 7) - To be expected. Gary's game is in a slump and he drank beer out of a shoe the day before.
- Reid led Melberg 4 Up (thru 8) - Somewhat shocking. Not that Reid couldn't win... but a blow-out of the 2nd best golfer in the Club?!
- Casey led Ho 5 Up (thru 8) - Wait... the best golfer in our Club is also getting spanked?!
- Troy led Geoff 4 Up (thru 12) - Geoff turned into a putter on the hood of Troy's car. He gone.
- Gorecki led Brendan 4 Up (thru 12) - Chandler gave Brendan some pamphlets explaining how to cope with losing to Gorecki in Rapture Singles. I'd say it gets better... but it doesn't.
- Casey led Ho 6 Up (thru 12) - I bet you think this post is about you, don't you?
- Reid led Melberg 1 Up (thru 12) - Hang on! Orange has a new path to the Winner's Circle!
- Travis led Gary 3 Up (thru 12) - This is elder abuse. Just end it already.
- Dave led Danny 4 Up (thru 12) - Dave prolonging the match until the aliens arrive.
- Chandler/Faz & Darren/Moosite All Square (thru 12) - "God dammit! All eyes are going to be on our foursome down the stretch." -Chandler, multiple times
- Chandler took down Faz by making pars on 14 through 17. Faz had a tough break (tee shot unexpectedly going OB on 15)... but when the Par Train is rolling, it's wise to get off the tracks.
- Moostie made a natural 7 on the par-3 14th... to win the hole... and go 2 Up. Darren was mentally defeated at that point. Never mind that Darren chipped in for birdie on the next hole, only to be covered up by Moostie with a long putt for birdie. This is the Tall Mike we all love, and hate to play against.
Orange should have the three points needed to force a playoff. But some new shit had come to light behind my group:
- Melberg won 16 to go 1 Up, possibly giving Orange the Moses, as Reid didn't stroke on 17.
- Gary won four holes in a row to go 1 Up through 16 on Travis. There are no strokes left in this match. I'm told it was such an "out-of-this-world collapse," the aliens Dave summoned turned their ship around. They'd given up on saving humanity (again) due to Travis' mind-boggling course management. If humans can't hold a 4 Up lead on half-blind Gary, they are a doomed species. We're talking Topor levels of bad decisions. Not being able to give each other tips/advice was a huge detriment.
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| Well deserved champions. |
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| A man who picks winners (and Danny). |
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| 2022 Rapture Participants |
Thursday, October 6, 2022
Rapture 2022 - Final Prep
- Everyone should be car pooling. Green House was the only one that said anything, but only 3 cars allowed at that property. If you people have more than three cars, we can probably put one at the Mixed House.
- I'll send a big 16-person Rapture text tonight with ALL the addresses. We can't go to the houses until after our first round, which will end after 5:30pm... and it's about a 25 minute drive back to town. I reckon we'll quickly clean up and head out for food. But each team should coordinate with each other.
- Rules Reminders:
- You can't help your "teammate" read greens in Singles (Sunday). Everyone is on their own. Mistakes happen, but please don't do it on purpose.
- If an opponent concedes your next stroke, you must pick up and move out of the way. Continuing to play — especially if it delays the match or helps your partner — is a violation of USGA Rule 23.6.
- Don't interfere with other Matches. It's great fun to watch the final parings come in, but be respectful. Let us choke on our own. We don't need your help. And remember, this is a highly prestigious event!
Tuesday, October 4, 2022
Rapture 2022 - Housing
Each Point Earned - $20
Winning the Rapture - $60
Monday, October 3, 2022
Rapture 2022 - Official Handicaps
Saturday, October 1, 2022
2022 - Rapture Venue Change
- We're only staying two (2) nights: Friday, October 7th and Saturday, October 8th. If you took PTO on Thursday, you no longer need to do that.
- Friday, October 7th - Chapman at Candler Hills - 1pm start
- This was the only time any course could give us on Friday. Because of the late start, there's no need for a Thursday night stay. Be sure to give yourself enough time to get up there and warm up.
- Saturday, October 8th - Four Ball at Juliette Falls - 9:12am start
- Course is in great shape and is quite challenging. Thus, we
can'tshouldn't do Chapman here, and instead will play Four Ball (as we did in 2017). - Sunday, October 9th - Singles at Skyview - 10:45am start
- This is the earliest they could get us out. It's near the AirBNBs and very close to the Veterans/SunCoast expressway.
Friday, September 30, 2022
2022 Rapture Update
We are still on. Update to follow once I have all the details booked. Which is going slow because I still don’t have power.
Thursday, September 15, 2022
Moostenbrink
While many seasons blend together, for me the Summer 2022
Season will always be easy to remember as the Summer of Moostenbrink. I was able to play in six events and played all
six rounds with Tall Mike. It created a
special opportunity to extensively study the Moostie in the wild.
We all know the Moostie is a unique creature. Here is a little breakdown of his golf game
and what, in my opinion, has led to his success in the league.
Golf swing breakdown.
Mike is more of a picker than a compressor of the golf ball. Faz comes to mind as someone that is the
opposite. I would guess that the bottom
of Mike’s swing arc with iron shots is pretty much at impact rather than an
inch or two after the ball. This helps
explain why Mike is such a good iron player from the fairway, but struggles a
bit more from the rough. I also think
this is why he struggles somewhat out of greenside bunkers: it’s tough to
consistently “pick” the ball cleanly on short sand shots. His swing helps him hit up on the ball on tee
shots though. When he gets his 3 wood
working off the tee, he can string together a lot of good holes in a row.
I wonder how much of Mike’s swing is predicated on his back
issues and, therefore, whether swing changes would even be feasible. His swing speed really comes from the
gigantic arc that he can create given his height and long arms. He does not use his lower body to generate
much of his speed. If he created more
force with his lower body through the ground, this would help him generate more
swing speed and would also create a more descending blow at impact. It’s a tough balancing act though. A steeper angle at impact has its own faults
for amateur golfers (i.e. more fat shots and pull hooks). It would also create a lot more stress on his
back. It’s tough to imagine Tall Mike
making it through 18 holes if he tried to imitate Joaquin Niemann’s swing.
Another reason why I would hesitate to make any drastic
changes with Mike’s swing is the fact that he has shown the ability to greatly
improve his golf game with the swing he has in place. When Mike joined the League, he was around a
24 handicap and he is now a 16 handicap.
The only other player that I can think of that has managed to drop his
handicap that much is Mike Hauch.
Moving on to what has made Moostie successful in the League,
I think it really comes down to his level of commitment.
Mike is committed in three different ways. First, he is committed to the League itself. Despite having two kids and a wife that has to work some weekends, he plays in a good amount of events each season. If Mike misses an event, there was probably no legitimate way that he could have made it. Second, he commits as much time as he can to each event. Generally, Mike will get to the course early to get in a proper warm up and won't leave the range until he is ready. He doesn’t get distracted by silly things like being on the tee box when it is his Group’s turn to tee off. After all, there are four players in the Group. Standing on the box while the first three players tee off is a waste of valuable practice time. Third, he commits to each and every shot during a round. We mock the amount of time he stands over a putt, the amount of practice swings that he takes, and not pulling the trigger until he is 100% ready. However, how many strokes do you waste each round? If most of us thought about each and every shot and then committed to the shot itself, I think most of us would be able to shave a couple of strokes off our score each round without doing anything else to improve our games.
I
don’t think that it is coincidence that the two guys in the League that have
four Cups both have great attendance and also an appreciation for every shot
during a round. Winning an event often
comes down to one or two strokes. For
me, I typically make my bad swings on shots that are fairly easy. It’s generally on a wide open hole that I
completely block a drive or a straight forward, bump and run chip that I hit
fat. Those lapses in concentration add
up over a round and a season. I think
Chandler thinks his way around a golf course as well as anyone in the League,
but Moostie probably concentrates on every shot better than anyone.
1.
The putter pump fake. Have you ever seen another player line up
their putt, take their stance, address the ball, take their backswing… and then
stop? I guess sometimes you will see a
professional golfer stop and then step away and restart their process. Mike will stop mid backswing, bring the
putter back to the ball, and then will proceed to hit his putt sometimes a
second or two later and sometimes after 5 or 6 seconds of standing over the
ball. I have never seen anyone else do
that once, let alone at least once a round.
2.
The mid-round rolling on the ground knees to
chest stretching. Despite all the warm
up time, or perhaps because of it, you will undoubtedly see Mike laying on a tee
box at some point in the round rolling around on the ground trying to loosen up
his back.
3.
Trying to find the perfect practice swing. There are plenty of players that try to
visualize their shot before they hit it.
I have never seen someone try to mimic the perfect swing with their
practice swing though and continue to make practice swings until they find it. For me at least, it would be almost
impossible to make the exact same swing two times in a row. I don’t want to waste my good swing on the
practice swing and then step up to the ball, get half way through my backswing
or at the top of my swing, and realize that something is in a different
position than in my “perfect” swing. Without
needing a MRI machine, I think it’s safe to say that Tall Mike and Dustin
Johnson’s brain activity during a golf swing are going to be polar opposites.
Friday, September 9, 2022
2022 - Rapture Draft Results
Since most of you won't physically be at the draft on Saturday night... the results can be viewed here in not-so-real-time:
Draft Results:
Thursday, September 8, 2022
Worst Golfer in League History
Worst winning percentage:
Josh Crum: 0.00%
JW Ferguson: 2.83%
Brian Topor: 5.26%
Dan Rogers: 5.26%
Mike Hauch: 5.33%
Worst Career Earning:
JW Ferguson:
($553.87)
Danny MacLean: ($371.66)
Robert Reid: ($327.66)
Mike Gorecki: ($300.41)
Adam Lynch: ($300.11)
Worst Career Scoring Average:
Danny MacLean: 106.8
Mike Gorecki: 104.8
Brian Topor: 102.1
JW Ferguson: 101.5
Josh Crum: 100.9
This narrowed the list down to nine names. I went ahead and removed Adam, Reid, Hauch
and Dan, as their scoring averages are all under 100. Hauch might be (has to be?) the worst player
when it comes to Exhibition Scores compared to League Scores, but that post
will have to come at a later date.
Josh Crum: A lot of
Members have enjoyed immediate success upon joining the League, Crum is not one
of those people. He has yet to win, so he
has the lowest winning percentage at 0.00%.
He does not crack the top five in lowest career earnings, but that is
likely due to the small amount of events played. He probably holds the longest consecutive Bad
Pitcher Owed streak, but I’m not 100% sure on that. I think Big John had a great (awful?) streak
going at one time. He does have a few
stats going in his favor though when it comes to not being the worst player in
League history. His scoring average is
just over 100, which is significantly better than Gorecki and Danny Mac. His Greenie average is 0.43 and Long Drive
average is .22, which are very good compared to his competition.
JW Ferguson: This may
seem like the obvious choice based on the combination of win percentage, career
earnings, and the fact that he has the longest losing streak in League
history. However, he also has some
things he can point to make a good case that he isn’t the worst player. His scoring average, Greenie average (.38),
and Long Drive average (.26) are better than Gorecki and Danny Mac.
Brian Topor: Like
Crum, Topor has not logged a large number of events (19 total). He has managed to get one victory and it was
a Major. He also has the highest Greenie
average in this group (0.57), so I think it is safe to remove his name from
consideration given the small sample size.
Danny MacLean: I was
somewhat surprised to see that Danny Mac had the worst Scoring Average in the
League (106.8). Not only is it the worst
average, but it is the worst by a full two shots (Gorecki: 104.8). I haven’t played many rounds with Danny, but
I don’t think he has a terrible golf swing and was surprised by the Scoring
Average and low Greenie average (.25).
He also has the second worst Career Earnings. I hate to say it, but his stats make a good
case for being the worst.
Last, but maybe not the Worst, Mike Gorecki: If we were asked to immediately name the
worst golfer in the League, I think we have all been brainwashed to immediately
respond with Gorecki. However, there are
quite a few stats that Gorecki could point out to make his argument that he
isn’t the worst. His win percentage
(8.5%) is head and shoulders above his competition. In fact, he has more wins than the other four
guys on this list have combined. He also
does not have the worst Scoring Average or Greenie average (.30 compared to
Danny’s .25). He has finished second in
the Season Standings multiple times and has the most memorable/heartbreaking
second place finish in League history.
One thing that does not show up in the stats that I have to
bring up though is the fact that Gorecki has the only swing in the League that
negatively impacts my score. If I am in
Gorecki’s group, I have trouble making solid contact with the golf ball by the
time I get to the back nine. Whereas you
watch Melberg’s swing and you wonder how he ever hits a bad shot, you watch
Gorecki’s swing and sometimes wonder how the ball even advances. I took advice from Irish Dave and I will
literally not watch him take practice swings or hit the ball as much as
possible. I am not surprised that he has
a much better match play record than the other guys on this list due to the
negative impact he can have on his opponent.
I don’t know how to factor this into his ranking, but it is something
that separates him from the rest.
Despite the fact that these guys all really suck at golf,
I’m glad they are in the League and hope they know that they make the rest of
us feel a little better about our own golf games. If I had to assign an order, I think I would
go 1. Danny Mac, 2. JW,
3. Gorecki, 4.
Crum, 5. Topor. I would give Gorecki some credit for the fact
that he has so many more wins than everyone else and I would give Crum some
slack based on the small number of events played.





